| 福建省2000—2013年气象因子的变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵嘉阳,王文辉,郭福涛,林芳芳,梁慧玲,林玉蕊.福建省2000—2013年气象因子的变化趋势[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2016(5):567-575. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵嘉阳 王文辉 郭福涛 林芳芳 梁慧玲 林玉蕊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学计算机与信息学院;2. 福建农林大学林学院,福建 福州,350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J05049)，福建省教育厅科研专项资金项目(JK2014012)，保险精算实验项目(118310010)，基于信息技术的复合型创新人才培养平台建设项目(117-612014047) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于福建省10个气象站2000—2013年的气象观测资料,应用Sen's斜率估计法和Daniel趋势检验法分析了4个气象因子的年际和季节变化趋势及其空间分布,采用Pettitt突变检验法检测突变点的发生.结果表明:在年际和季节变化的趋势中,东南沿海地区的风速显著减弱,西北部地区显著增强;南部地区夏天和秋天的相对湿度显著降低;降水的年际和季节变化不显著;全省气温升高突变集中在2011年;此外,虽然冬天和春天的气温越来越低,夏天气温越来越高,但趋势缓慢不显著,表明福建省气温整体趋于稳定.
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| 关 键 词： | Sen's斜率估计 Daniel趋势检验 Pettitt突变检验 气象因子 |
Analysis on the changes of meteorological factors of Fujian Province during 2000-2013 |
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| Abstract: | Understanding features and patterns of reginal climate change not only minimizes risks on local agricultural and forestry industry but also illuminates directions on ecological exploitation and constuction. To update climate change in Fujian Province, Sen′s slope estimation and Daniel and Mann-Kendall test were applied to analyze annual and seasonal data on wind speed, precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature during 2000-2013 from 10 weather stations across Fujian. Then Pettitt mutation test was used to detect spacial and temporal transition points for 4 meteorological indicators. Results showed that wind speed decreased significantly towards southeast Fujian and increased towards northwest. Relative humidity of southern area decreased significantly in summer and autumn. Mutation points for raising temperature concentrated in 2011. And temperature tended to be lower in winter and spring, and higher in summer but without significant variations, indicating relatively stable temperature across Fujian Province. Meanwhile, pre-cipitation mantianed the same spacially and temporally. |
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| Keywords: | Sen′s slope estimate Daniel and Mann-Kendall statistical test Pettitt mutation test meteorological factors |
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