| 河南省1960—2018年旱涝演变及其极端与持续性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 楚纯洁,周金风.河南省1960—2018年旱涝演变及其极端与持续性分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(3):164-171. |
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| 作者姓名： | 楚纯洁 周金风 |
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| 作者单位： | (平顶山学院 旅游与规划学院, 河南 平顶山 467000) |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究河南省旱涝变化规律及其气候驱动因子,利用河南省17个国家基准气象台站1960—2018年逐日降水、气温资料,采用降水和潜在蒸发均一化旱涝指标,对河南省旱涝时空演变特征进行了多尺度、系统性分析。结果表明:(1)近59年河南省旱涝呈振荡性波动且具显著干旱化趋势,1980s偏涝程度最强,1990s中期之后趋于偏旱,而且干旱化趋势在未来将持续增强。季节间旱涝存在明显差异,尤其春季、秋季干旱化趋势最显著,夏季、冬季无显著干旱化趋势。全年、季节旱涝演变普遍存在3～5 a的年际周期变化,秋季还存在7～8 a的周期变化,全年与春、夏、冬季还存在13～14 a的周期性。(2)河南省全年与秋季呈全域性干旱化趋势,尤其以开封、郑州和新乡等黄河沿岸连片区干旱化趋势最为显著,夏季全省无明显旱涝变化趋势,冬春季干旱化趋势呈不同局域性。(3)1990s中期之后河南省极端干旱发生频次快速增多,连片、区域性干旱化趋势显著增强,极端雨涝则显著减少,冬季极端旱涝较少,夏季发生频次最高,全年与季节极端旱涝在空间变化上呈规律性差异分布。(4)1990s中期以来河南省持续性干旱事件的增多增强已成为必然趋势,发生次数、强度、持续时间均远超以往,而持续性雨涝事件则在1990s中期之后显著减少,两者的发生演化基本呈反相同步呼应、此消彼长的特点。河南省旱涝演变呈显著干旱化趋势,且呈全域性干旱化趋势分布特点,极端干旱、持续性干旱事件增多增强已成为必然趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝演变 极端旱涝 持续性旱涝 河南省 |
Extreme and Persistent Feature of Drought-Flood Evolution in Henan Province During 1960-2018 |
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| CHU Chunjie,ZHOU Jinfeng.Extreme and Persistent Feature of Drought-Flood Evolution in Henan Province During 1960-2018[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(3):164-171. |
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| Authors: | CHU Chunjie ZHOU Jinfeng |
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| Institution: | (College of Tourism and Planning, Pingdingshan University, Pingdingshan, Henan 467000, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the variation law of drought-flood in Henan Province and its driving factors, based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 17 national meteorological stations in Henan Province during the period from 1960 to 2018, spatiotemporal variation of drought and flood in Henan Province was systematically analyzed on multi-time scale by using homogenized drought-flood index of precipitation and latent evaporation. The results showed that:(1)drought and flood in Henan Province showed oscillatory fluctuation and significant drought trend in 1960—2018; the degree of waterlogging was the strongest in 1980s, but the climate tended to be dry after mid-1990s, and the drought trend would continue to increase in the future; the climate in four seasons showed different degrees of drought trend, especially in spring and autumn, and there was no significant drought trend in summer and winter; the annual and seasonal drought-flood evolutions in Henan Province generally had 3～5 years periodicity, 7～8 years periodicity in autumn, and 13～14 years periodicity in whole year, spring, summer and winter, respectively;(2)the drought and flood in Henan Province showed a widespread-regional drought trend in whole year and autumn, especially in the contiguous areas along the Yellow River such as Kaifeng, Zhengzhou and Xinxiang; there was no obvious drought-flood trend in summer, and the drought trend in winter and spring showed different localization;(3)after mid-1990s, the frequency of extreme drought in Henan Province increased rapidly, and the trend of contiguous and regional drought was significantly enhanced; however, extreme flood decreased significantly; extreme droughts and floods were less in winter, and the highest frequency occurred in summer; annual and seasonal extreme droughts and floods showed regular differences in spatial distribution;(4)the increase of persistent drought events in Henan Province since mid-1990s had become an inevitable trend; the number, intensity and duration of persistent drought events were far more than those in past, while persistent flood events significantly reduced after mid-1990s; the occurrence and evolution of two events in past 59 years were basically anti-synchronous. The evolution of drought and flood in Henan Province shows a significant drought trend, and shows the distribution characteristics of drought trend in widespread region. The increase and enhancement of extreme drought and persistent drought events has become an inevitable trend. |
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| Keywords: | drought-flood evolution extreme drought-flood persistent drought-flood Henan Province |
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