| 基于气象因子的金华市土壤墒情预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 舒素芳,钱华峰,邱小伟.基于气象因子的金华市土壤墒情预测模型[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(2):180-184. |
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| 作者姓名： | 舒素芳 钱华峰 邱小伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 金华市气象局,浙江金华,321000 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省重大科技专项重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用金华2007—2008年土壤墒情资料和相关气象资料，分析了土壤湿度的基本变化规律，对土壤湿度与相关气象因子进行了灰色关联度分析，找出关键气象影响因子，建立了基于关键气象影响因子的土壤墒情预测模型并进行了试报和验证。结果表明：金华市冬季、春季土壤较为湿润、变化较为平稳，夏季、秋季土壤相对较干、变幅较大；5mm降水与蒸发的差为影响土壤相对湿度变化的首要因子；基于关键因子的土壤墒情预测模型试报2008年夏季的10cm、10—20cm、20—30cm土层相对湿度的平均误差分别为15．75％、6．89％、8．21％，该模型预测的土壤湿度状况基本能反映旱情发展的动态趋势。模型可为准确预测土壤墒情的变化状况，为农业生产合理用水和防灾减灾提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤墒情预测 气象因子 关联度 |
Soil Moisture Forecast Model Based on Meteorological Factors in Jinhua City |
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| SHU Su-fang,QIAN Hua-feng,QIU Xiao-wei.Soil Moisture Forecast Model Based on Meteorological Factors in Jinhua City[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(2):180-184. |
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| Authors: | SHU Su-fang QIAN Hua-feng QIU Xiao-wei |
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| Institution: | ( Meteorological Bureau of Jinhua City,Jinhua 321000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the soil moisture and meteorological data of 2007-2008 in Jinhua City, changes of the soil moisture were analyzed by the grey correlation degree method. The soil moisture and related meteorological factors were analyzed with the method of grey correlation degree analysis. The key meteorological factors were ascertained and the soil moisture forecast model was built and validated. The results showed that the soil moisture content was high and stable in winter and spring in Jinhua City, while it was low with larger variation in summer and autumn. The difference between precipitation by 5mm and evaporation was the key meteorological factor affecting soil moisture content. With the soil moisture prediction model based on the key meteorological factor, the soil moisture in summer of 2008 was predicted. The average forecast error for soil layer 0 - 10cm, 10 -20cm and 20 -30cm was 15.75% , 6.89% and 8.21% respectively. The results for the soil moisture content forecasted by this model revealed the developing tendency of the drought in Jinhua City. |
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| Keywords: | Soil moisture forecast Meteorological factor Grey correlation degree |
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