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城市土地一级市场波动及其政策因素驱动的考察——以南京市为例
引用本文:张敬梓,吴群.城市土地一级市场波动及其政策因素驱动的考察——以南京市为例[J].安徽农业科学,2014(19):6393-6396.
作者姓名:张敬梓  吴群
作者单位:南京农业大学公共管理学院;
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71233004);国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201111011)
摘    要:近年来宏观调控政策出台密集,对城市土地市场影响较大.该研究界定了土地市场波动的内涵,从影响土地市场供需的政策因素分析入手,重点阐释了财政政策、金融货币政策、土地政策对土地市场波动的驱动机制,并在理论分析的基础上,进行典型城市实证分析,分析了南京市一级土地市场2007年以来的季度波动特征,并构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进行实证研究.结果显示:以财政收入和房地产投资为主要手段的财政政策推动土地市场发展,财政收入政策影响显著;金融货币政策对于土地市场影响具有不稳定性;积极的土地供应对市场交易价格有抑制作用.结合当前宏观调控的实践,提出针对性建议.

关 键 词:城市土地市场  财政政策  货币政策  土地政策  南京市

Investigation on Fluctuation and Driving Factors of Urban Land Market-A Case of Nanjing
Institution:ZHANG Jing-zi et al (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 )
Abstract:In recent years,macroeconomic regulation policies changed intensively which had a greater impact on the urban land market.After analyzing the quarterly fluctuation characteristics of Nanjing land market since 2007,this research emphatically explained the driven mechanism of land market volatility by fiscal policy,monetary policy,land policy from the policy factor which affected the supply and demand of land market.Then this research examined the three policies' influence on the land market by using impulse response functions and variance decomposition based on VAR model.Investigation results showed that:the proactive fiscal policy is to promote the development of the land market,but aging is shorter; monetary policy has unstably impact on the land market; liberal land policies are to promote long-term development of the land market.According to the current practices,the corresponding countermeasures were put forward.
Keywords:Urban land market  Fiscal policy  Monetary policy  Land policy  Nanjing City
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