| 江西省农业产业结构与碳排放关系实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱同仁,马忆航,陈胜东.江西省农业产业结构与碳排放关系实证研究[J].现代农业科技,2023(13). |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱同仁 马忆航 陈胜东 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西财经大学 经济学院,江西财经大学 经济学院,江西财经大学 经济学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西财经大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202210421007);江西省高校人文社科项目“双碳目标下江西省农业碳减排实现路径研究”(JJ21116) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于2005年-2020年的江西省十一地市的面板数据，通过Johansen协整检验，误差修正模型，格兰杰因果检验，研究农业产业结构与农业碳排放之间的关系。结果显示农业产业结构，农业人口，城镇化率，农村用电量与农业碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系，农业人口呈现负的推动作用，农业产业结构，城镇化率，农村用电量呈现正的推动作用，农业产业结构与城镇化率在推动农业碳排放增长中发挥了主要作用；在向量误差修正模型中，农业产业结构，城镇化率，农业人口，农村电气化水平在短期内对农业碳排放具有正向影响，农业人口在短期内对农业碳排放具有负向影响；在格兰杰因果检验中，农业产业结构与农业碳排放存在互为因果的格兰杰关系，农业产业结构会推动农业碳排放的增加，农业碳排放会一定程度上影响农业产业结构。因此，需要从优化农业产业结构角度出发，确立农业碳减排目标，减少农业碳排放，把二者有机结合，推动农业朝着绿色高效发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业产业结构 农业碳排放 Johansen协整检验 VEC模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/10/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/10/31 0:00:00 |
An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Agricultural Industrial Structure and Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province |
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| Authors: | chenshengdong |
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| Institution: | School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics |
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| Abstract: | Based on the panel data of eleven cities in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2020, this paper studies the relationship between agricultural industrial structure and agricultural carbon emissions through Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural industrial structure, agricultural population, urbanization rate, rural electricity consumption and agricultural carbon emissions. Agricultural population has a negative role in promoting in promoting agricultural carbon emission;agricultural industrial structure, urbanization rate, and rural electricity consumption have a positive role in promoting agricultural carbon emissions;agricultural industrial structure and urbanization rate play a major role in promoting agricultural carbon emissions growth.In the vector error correction model, agricultural industrial structure, urbanization rate, agricultural population and rural electrification level have a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions in the short term, while agricultural population has a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions in the short term. In the Granger causality test, agricultural industrial structure and agricultural carbon emissions have a granger relationship of mutual causality. Agricultural industrial structure will promote the increase of agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural carbon emissions will affect agricultural industrial structure to some extent. Therefore, from the perspective of optimizing agricultural industrial structure, it is necessary to establish agricultural carbon emission reduction targets, reduce agricultural carbon emissions, and organically combine the two to promote the green and efficient development of agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | Agricultural industrial structure Agricultural carbon emissions Johansen cointegration test VEC model |
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