| 集成预测模型在森林火灾预测预报中的应用研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | zhangchaoyang@sina.com |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学计算机与信息学院,福州,350002
2. 福建农林大学食品科学学院,福州,350002 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了以非线性函数拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻画随机扰动的集成预测模型,并利用该模型对福建省建阳市森林火灾面积的变动规律进行了预测预报,取得了较为理想的效果。理论与实践表明集成预测模型能定量分析灾害发生的时间动态及其变化规律,从而为灾害防御决策提供了可靠的信息。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林火灾 集成预测模型 决策 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-162005-11-28 |
Study on the Application of Integrated Model in the Prediction of Forest Fire |
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| zhangchaoyang@sina.com.Study on the Application of Integrated Model in the Prediction of Forest Fire[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2006,22(3):400-400. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Chaoyang Lin Qixun |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Computer and Information, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University; 2.College of Food Science, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the integrated model of natural disaster prediction was put forward,in which, nonlinear model was used to simulate the trend, sine curve to fit the cyclical change and Markov chain to depict random distribution. Based on the data of the forest fire disaster areas obtained from Jianyang city, Fujian province, the dynamic change of destroyed area by the forest fir was simulated and predicted by the integrate model,and the results were satisfied. It is proved by theory and practice that the integrated model of natural disaster prediction can quantitative analysis disaster generate time dynamic, offering the reliable information for the decision of disaster recovery. |
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| Keywords: | Forest fire Integrated predict model Decision |
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