| 基于信息量模型的西溪流域崩岗风险评估 |
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| 作者姓名： | 管家琳 贾秀菊 季翔 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院;福建农林大学公共管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41601557,41571272);福建农林大学杰出青年科研人才计划项目(XJQ201933);福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAS160171)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 崩岗是发生在我国南方红壤区的严重的土壤侵蚀现象,不仅破坏了当地的生态环境并且直接影响了生产生活,因此崩岗发生的风险评估是崩岗预警需要解决的关键问题之一。以福建省泉州市安溪县的西溪流域为研究区,筛选崩岗的主要影响因子,借助信息量模型构建崩岗风险评估体系,并评估研究区的崩岗风险。结果表明:河网缓冲距离、海拔高度、相对高差、坡度、坡向、土壤类型、植被覆盖度以及土地利用类型可作为评估崩岗发生的主要风险因子;风险因子的梯度分析结果表明,河网缓冲距离近,坡度15°~35°的阳坡,海拔100~500 m,相对高差>50 m,土壤类型为红壤、赤红壤,植被覆盖度0~20%或40%~80%和土地利用类型为园地、未利用地的区域易发生崩岗;以河网缓冲距离、海拔高度、相对高差等8个筛选因子构建信息量模型,采用接受者操作特征(ROC)曲线对评价结果进行检验,对应的曲线下面积为0.827,精度结果良好。信息量模型对崩岗发生风险评估结果良好,可应用于小流域尺度范围的风险评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 西溪流域 崩岗 风险因子 信息量模型 风险评估 |
Risk assessment of collapsing gullies in the Xixi watershed based on information model |
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| Authors: | GUAN Jialin JIA Xiuju JI Xiang |
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| Institution: | (College of Resources and Environment,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;College of Public Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China) |
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| Abstract: | Collapsing gullies is a serious phenomenon in the red soil region in Southern China,which not only damages the local ecological environment but also directly affects production and life.Therefore,risk assessment of collapsing gullies is a key issue to be addressed to help identify the early warnings,and predict potential collapsing gullies.For this study,the Xixi watershed located in the eastern part of Anxi County,Quanzhou City of the Fujian Province was utilized as the study area.A risk assessment index system for the occurrence of collapsing gullies was constructed,and the risk of collapsing gullies in the study area was evaluated based on historical data,which included the buffer distance of the river network,elevation,elevation difference,slope,slopeorientation,soil type,vegetation coverage,and land use type.According to a risk factor gradient analysis,it was determined that collapsing gullies are more likely to occur under the following conditions:located close to the buffer distance of a river network;at an altitude between 100 to 500 m;having an elevation difference greater than 50 m,a slope between 15°and 35°,a sunny slope orientation or vegetation coverage less than 20%or between 40%and 80%;located in red or latosolic red soil,or in garden orunused land areas.An information model was constructed using the eight screening factors of buffer distance to the river network,elevation,elevation difference,slope,slope orientation,soil type,vegetation coverage,and land use type.A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to test the assessment results and the value of area under the curve was 0.827,which indicates good accuracy.Therefore,it is evident that the information model is accurate in assessing the risk of collapsing gullies and can be applied for risk assessment in small watersheds. |
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| Keywords: | Xixi watershed collapsing gullies risk factors information model risk assessment |
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