Epidemiology theory and disturbance spread on landscapes |
| |
| Authors: | R V O’Neill R H Gardner M G Turner W H Romme |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 38731-6038 Oak Ridge, TN;(2) Biology Department, Fort Lewis College, Durango, CO |
| |
| Abstract: | Abtract Epidemiology models, modified to include landscape pattern, are used to examine the relative importance of landscape geometry
and disturbance dynamics in determining the spatial extent of a disturbance, such as a fire. The models indicate that, except
for very small values for the probability of spread, a disturbance tends to propagate to all susceptible sites that can be
reached. Therefore, spatial pattern, rather than disturbance dynamic, will ordinarily determine the total extent of a single
disturbance event. The models also indicate that a single disturbance will seldom become endemic,i.e., always present on the landscape. However, increasing disturbance frequency can lead to a landscape in which the proportion
of susceptible, disturbed, and recovering sites are relatively constant.
Research supported by Ecological Research Division, Office of Health and Environmental Research, U.S. Department of Energy
under contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Contribution No. 10 to the Sevilleta LTER program.
Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3812, ORNL. |
| |
| Keywords: | Disturbance spatial pattern landscape ecology |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
