| 江苏省种植业碳排放的测算及达峰分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 范振浩,邢巍巍,卜元卿,刘娟.江苏省种植业碳排放的测算及达峰分析[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(5):78-85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范振浩 邢巍巍 卜元卿 刘娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江农林大学环境与资源学院, 碳中和学院, 杭州 311300;2. 大连市生态环境事务服务中心, 辽宁 大连 116000;3. 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所固体废物污染防治研究中心, 南京 210042;4. 南京信息工程大学江苏省大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心, 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1801105,2017YFD0800705);生态环境部事业费项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标背景下,明确农业温室气体排放现状,模拟预测峰值,为促进江苏省农业低碳减排提供科学依据。基于农业物资投入和农田土壤利用2类碳源,采用IPCC碳排放系数法和清单法综合测算江苏省1990—2020年间种植业碳排放量,运用Tapio脱钩模型对农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系进行分析,并根据灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对2021—2060年碳排放量进行预测。结果表明：(1)2020年江苏省种植业碳排放为1 999.53万t, 1990—2020年间呈现先增加后降低再增加然后趋于平稳的趋势;种植业碳排放主要来源于农田土壤利用,农田土壤利用碳排放占比为77.73%～86.95%,农资投入碳排放占比为13.05%～22.27%;(2)化肥是农资投入碳排放源中最主要的排放源,其占比为69.15%～79.20%,其次是农药和农膜,农机、灌溉、翻耕占比均较低;(3)水稻是农田土壤利用排放源中最主要的排放源,其占农田土壤利用碳排放的79.76%～87.23%,其次是小麦和蔬菜,大豆、玉米、棉花占比均较低;(4)脱钩关系以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主,表明随着种植业生产总值的提高,农业种植...
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| 关 键 词： | 农业碳排放 农资投入 农田土壤利用 Tapio脱钩模型 峰值预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/3/28 0:00:00 |
Calculation and Peak Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Planting in Jiangsu Province |
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| FAN Zhenhao,XING Weiwei,BU Yuanqing,LIU Juan.Calculation and Peak Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Planting in Jiangsu Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,37(5):78-85. |
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| Authors: | FAN Zhenhao XING Weiwei BU Yuanqing LIU Juan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Environment and Resources, College of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300;2. Dalian Eco-environmental Affairs Service Center, Dalian, Liaoning 116000;3. Research Center of Solid Waste Pollution and Prevention, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042;4. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | In the context of achieving the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", we should clarify the current situation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, simulate and predict the peak value, and provide a scientific basis for promoting low-carbon emission reduction of agriculture in Jiangsu Province. Based on the two types of carbon sources of agricultural material input and farmland soil utilization, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method and inventory method were used to comprehensively calculate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2020. The Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth, and the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060 were predicted based on the grey prediction model GM (1,1). The results showed that:(1) The carbon emissions from agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province reached 1 999.53 tons in 2020. From 1990 to 2020, it first increased, then decreased, then increased, and then tended to be stable. Carbon emissions from agricultural planting mainly came from farmland soil use, accounting for 77.73%~86.95% of carbon emissions, and 13.05%~22.27% of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs. (2) Chemical fertilizer was the most important source of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs, accounting for 69.15%~79.20%, followed by pesticides and agricultural film, and agricultural machinery, irrigation and tillage had relatively low proportion. (3) Rice was the main emission source of farmland soil use, accounting for 79.76%~87.23% of farmland soil use carbon emissions, followed by wheat and vegetables, while soybean, corn and cotton accounted for a relatively low proportion. (4) The decoupling relationship was dominated by weak decoupling and strong decoupling, indicating a slow growth or decreasing trend of the carbon emissions from agricultural planting with the increasing of gross domestic product of the planting industry. (5) Taking the carbon emissions data of agricultural planting from 1990 to 2020 (nearly 30 years) and 1999 to 2020 (nearly 20 years) as samples, it was predicted that the carbon emissions of agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province will continue to increase from 2021 to 2060, and will not reach the peak in 2060. Based on the carbon emissions data of agricultural planting from 2010 to 2020, the carbon emissions of agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province will continue to decrease from 2021 to 2060, and has reached its peak in 2020, indicating that the development of low-carbon green agriculture in Jiangsu Province has achieved initial results in recent years. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural carbon emissions agricultural materials input farmland soil utilization Tapio decoupling model peak prediction |
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