| 1961—2018年西藏高原青稞产区气候生产潜力时空变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 周刊社,邓伟,崔元良,洪健昌,措姆,罗珍.1961—2018年西藏高原青稞产区气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2020,36(23):88-98. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周刊社 邓伟 崔元良 洪健昌 措姆 罗珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.西藏自治区气候中心,拉萨 850000;2.西藏自治区气象灾害防御技术中心,拉萨 850000;3.西藏自治区气象局机关服务中心,拉萨 850000;4.西藏大气环境科学研究所,拉萨 850000 |
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| 基金项目： | 西藏自治区重点研发计划(XZ202001ZY0023N);中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化对西藏春青稞产量的影响研究”(CCSF201935) |
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| 摘 要： | 定量评估西藏高原青稞产区不同气候区气候生产潜力空间分布格局、演变特征及其影响机理,对于西藏高原青稞生长环境变化研究和产业可持续发展具有重要意义。基于西藏高原青稞产区不同气候区的7个典型气象站观测资料序列,采用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析西藏高原青稞产区气候生产潜力时空分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果显示：1961—2018年青稞产区各站气温生产潜力(NPPt)呈极显著增加趋势,降水生产潜力(NPPr)呈显著增加趋势,蒸散生产潜力(NPPe)和标准气候生产潜力(NPPb)也均表现为波动的增加趋势。西藏高原主要青稞产区东部及沿雅江一带气候生产潜力限制因子为降水,高寒的北部地区气候生产潜力限制因子为气温或蒸散。NPPt、NPPr、NPPe、NPPb均表现为年代际增加趋势,20世纪80—90年代发生突变,且在21世纪初显著增加。1961—2018年气候的“暖湿型”变化趋势有利于当地青稞气候生产潜力的提高,青稞的生产不仅依赖于气候资源,还依赖于水资源的调配和利用。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气候生产潜力 Miami模型 Thornthwaite Memorial模型 青稞 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-08-11 |
Highland Barley Production Area of Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2018: Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Climatic Potential Productivity |
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| Zhou Kanshe,Deng Wei,Cui Yuanliang,Hong Jianchang,Cuo Mu,Luo Zhen.Highland Barley Production Area of Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2018: Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Climatic Potential Productivity[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2020,36(23):88-98. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Kanshe Deng Wei Cui Yuanliang Hong Jianchang Cuo Mu Luo Zhen |
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| Institution: | 1.Tibet Climatic Center, Lhasa 850000;2.Tibet Technology Institute of Meteorological Disaster Prevention, Lhasa 850000;3.Bureau Service Center of Tibet Meteorological Bureau, Lhasa 850000;4.Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Lhasa 850000 |
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| Abstract: | It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the spatial distribution pattern, evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of climatic potential productivity in highland barley production area of different climatic zones in Tibetan plateau for studying the changes of highland barley growth environment and the sustainable development of the industry. Based on the series of observation data from 7 meteorological stations, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of climatic potential productivity in highland barley production areas of Tibetan plateau and its response to climate change by using statistical analysis methods, such as Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model, climate trend rate, and Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results showed that: NPPt of each station in highland barley areas during 1961-2018 showed an extremely significant increase trend, NPPr showed a significant increase trend, and NPPe and NPPb showed an increasing trend with fluctuation; the limiting factor of NPPb in the eastern main highland barley areas of Tibetan plateau and along the Yarlung Zangbo River was precipitation, while the limiting factor of NPPb in the cold northern region was temperature or evapotranspiration. NPPt, NPPr, NPPe and NPPb all showed inter-decadal increase trend, which had a mutation from 1980s to 1990s, and became more significant in the early 21 st century. The transition to “warm and humid” climate is conducive to improving the climatic potential productivity of local highland barley during 1961-2018, the production of highland barley depends not only on climate resources, but also on the allocation and utilization of water resources. |
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| Keywords: | climate change climatic potential productivity Miami model Thornthwaite Memorial model highland barley |
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