| ARIMA模型在马尾松毛虫发生面积预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾春生.ARIMA模型在马尾松毛虫发生面积预测中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(19):5672-5673. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾春生 |
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| 作者单位： | 韶关学院英东生物工程学院,广东韶关,512005 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（39870647）. |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]为了研究ARIMA模型在马尾松毛虫发生面积预测中的应用。方法]利用时间序列对郁南市1975~2002年马尾松毛虫发生面积数据进行了分析。经过数据平稳化、模型识别及参数估计确立了ARIMA(2,2,2)模型,对郁南市1975~2002年的马尾松毛虫发生面积作了回测。结果]ARIMA(2,2,2)模型预测值的动态趋势与实际情况基本一致,特别是1990年以后的预测效果更佳,实际值都落入了预测值的可信区间范围,结果比较理想。结论]ARIMA模型假定未来的发展模式与过去的模式是一致的,更适用于作短期的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 马尾松毛虫 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）19-05672-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-31 |
Application of ARIMA Mode in Predicting Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus |
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| JIA Chun-sheng.Application of ARIMA Mode in Predicting Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2007,35(19):5672-5673. |
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| Authors: | JIA Chun-sheng |
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| Institution: | Yingdong College of Biological Engineering; Shaoguan University; Shaoguan; Guangdong 512005 |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The study aims to investigate the application of ARIMA mode in predicting occurrence area of Dendrolimus punctatus.Method] The data of occurrence area of Dendrolimus punctatus in Yunan city in 1975～2002 was analyzed by time sequence.ARIMA(2,2,2) mode was established through data stabilizing,mode identifying and parameter estimating,and the occurrence area of Dendrolimus punctatus in Yunan city in 1975～2002 was measured back.Result] The dynamic trend of prediction value by ARIMA(2,2,2) mode basically accorded with the actual condition,especially after 1990,the prediction effect was better and the actual values were all in the credible interval range of prediction value,with quite ideal result.Conclusion] ARIMA mode assumed that the future development mode accorded with the departed mode.It was more suitable to do short-time prediction. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA mode Dendrolimus punctatus Prediction |
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