| 利用树轮重建玛纳斯河流域过去289 a降水变化 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 齐元元,尚华明,张瑞波,魏文寿,袁玉江,喻树龙,张同文,陈峰,祝小梅.利用树轮重建玛纳斯河流域过去289 a降水变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 齐元元 尚华明 张瑞波 魏文寿 袁玉江 喻树龙 张同文 陈峰 祝小梅 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 伊犁哈萨克自治州气象局,新疆伊宁,835000;2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆树木年轮生态实验室,中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题，中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用采自天山北坡中部玛纳斯河流域的树轮样本,建立了玛纳斯河流域合成的区域标准化年表。树轮-气候响应分析表明,玛纳斯河流域树木径向生长的主要限制性因子是上年7月至当年6月降水量。进一步利用该年表重建了玛纳斯河流域过去289 a的降水变化。历史降水变化特征分析表明,过去289 a的降水经历6干6湿的阶段变化,并存在着1810、1823、1824、1885、1910、1944、1945年和1977年8个干旱年;具有2.0~2.4 a、3.3~3.8 a、17.4 a、48.0 a和64.0 a变化准周期,并在1780年前后发生了由少到多的突变,在1807年前后与1830年前后发生了由多到少的突变;重建的过去289 a玛纳斯河流域降水变化与天山山区历史气候变化序列有较好的一致性,并且能够代表新疆北部和中亚大部分区域历史降水变化。
|
| 关 键 词： | 树木年轮 降水重建 气候变化 玛纳斯河流域 天山北坡 |
The 289-year Variation of Precipitation Reconstructed with Tree-ring Data in the Manas River Basin |
| |
| QI Yuan-yuan,SHANG Hua-ming,ZHANG Rui-bo,WEI Wen-shou,YUAN Yu-jiang,YU Shu-long,ZHANG Tong-wen,CHEN Feng,ZHU Xiao-mei.The 289-year Variation of Precipitation Reconstructed with Tree-ring Data in the Manas River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(4). |
| |
| Authors: | QI Yuan-yuan SHANG Hua-ming ZHANG Rui-bo WEI Wen-shou YUAN Yu-jiang YU Shu-long ZHANG Tong-wen CHEN Feng ZHU Xiao-mei |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to deeply understand the past climate change in the Manas River Basin,in this study the tree-ring cores were collected from four sites in the basin,and they were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies into the MNS chronology.A transfer function was built to this chronology and the sequence of precipitation from July to next June,the advantage of “leave-one-out” was used to test the reconstruction sequence,the 31-year moving average,standard deviation,running T-test and power spectrum were used to analyze the variations of precipitation,extreme weather,climate mutation,and cycle characteristics of the reconstructed sequence.Main? results? of this? study? were as? follows:Correlation analysis indicated that tree rings were significantly correlated to precipitation from July to next June (r =0.637,P ＜ 0.000 1).A transfer function was built to reconstruct annual precipitation from July to next June since 1724 A.D.Analysis of precipitation series in the past 289 years (1724-2012 A.D.) showed that there were 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods,and also 8 drought years including 1810,1823,1824,1885,1910,1944,1945 and 1977;there were the significant periodical cycles of 2.0-2.4,3.3-3.8,17.4,48.0 and 64.0 years;the abrupt change of precipitation occurred in 1780,1807 and 1830.Precipitation change in the Manas River Basin had a good consistency with that in the Tianshan Mountains,and represented the regional precipitation change history in north Xinjiang and most of Central Asia. |
| |
| Keywords: | tree ring precipitation reconstruction climate change Manas River Basin northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
