| 草地螟一代幼虫最佳防治期气象预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐红艳,牛宝亮.草地螟一代幼虫最佳防治期气象预报模型[J].草业科学,2012,29(10):1622-1626. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐红艳 牛宝亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古兴安盟气象局,内蒙古乌兰浩特,137400 |
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| 基金项目： | 内蒙古自然科学基金项目“影响草地螟种群变化的气象指标及预报技术研究”，公益性行业(气象)科研专项“森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术” |
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| 摘 要： | 开展草地螟（Loxostege sticticalis）各虫态发生规律及其与气象因子的关系和指标研究，有利于更好地开展草地螟的防治工作，最大限度减轻灾害损失。本研究通过相关分析和典型年份对比分析方法，详细分析了气象因子对草地螟成虫产卵孵化期、1～3龄幼虫发育期持续天数的影响，在此基础上，采用最优子集多元回归方法，建立持续天数预报模型，通过预报成虫蛾峰至3龄幼虫期持续天数来确定草地螟一代幼虫最佳防治期。模型通过0.01信度检验，回代检验平均误差仅为1.2 d。草地螟最佳防治期预报结果对于指导农民及时开展防治工作，提高防治效果，实现最大限度减轻灾害损失具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 草地螟 一代幼虫 最佳防治期 预报模型 |
A forecast model for the best prevention period of first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis |
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| TANG Hong-yan,NIU Bao-liang.A forecast model for the best prevention period of first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis[J].Pratacultural Science,2012,29(10):1622-1626. |
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| Authors: | TANG Hong-yan NIU Bao-liang |
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| Institution: | (Hinggan League Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Ulan Hot 137400,China) |
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| Abstract: | Studying the relationship between occurrence regularity of various stages of the meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis) and meteorological factors is a good way to prevent the meadow moth effectively and alleviate possible disaster losses. Based on the correlation analysis between spawning and hatching time of overwintering generation of adults, development times of 1 to 3 age larvae, the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3 age larvae and meteorological factors and comparison analysis of these factors at typical years, we developed a forecast model on the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3 age larvae by using multiple linear regression of optimal subset. According to the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3 age larvae, the study determined the optimal controlling period of first generation larvae of the meadow moth. Average errors between simulated and observed values were about 1.2 days. These results are of importance to direct farmers to prevent the meadow moth, improve control effect and alleviate losses as much as possible. |
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| Keywords: | Loxostege sticticalis first generation larvae the best prevention period forecast method |
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