| 基于等维灰数递补动态模型的广东省交通事故预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 曾涛,刘芹,叶丽萍.基于等维灰数递补动态模型的广东省交通事故预测[J].仲恺农业工程学院学报,2014,27(1):49-53. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 曾涛 刘芹 叶丽萍 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1仲恺农业工程学院自动化学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 基金项目：广东省科技计划（20118031500022）资助项目. |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对广东省道路交通事故统计信息少和内部发生机理复杂的特点,在分析广东省道路和交通安全现状的基础上,利用灰色系统理论的等维灰数递补动态模型,构建了广东省交通事故预测模型,并根据广东省2007-2012年的交通事故统计数据,对未来短期内广东省发生的交通事故数和伤亡人数进行了预测.检验结果表明,在广东省交通事故的预测中,与回归预测模型相比,等维灰数递补动态模型具有更高精度和适应性.
|
| 关 键 词： | 交通事故 等维灰数递补动态模型 灰色系统理 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-10-27 |
Prediction of Guangdong province traffic accidents based on equal dimension gray dynamic model |
| |
| ZENG Tao,LIU Qin,YE Liping.Prediction of Guangdong province traffic accidents based on equal dimension gray dynamic model[J].Journal of Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Technology,2014,27(1):49-53. |
| |
| Authors: | ZENG Tao LIU Qin YE Liping |
| |
| Institution: | ( College of Automation, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Guangdong Province traffic accident had less statistical information and complex internal mechanism. Guangdong Province traffic accident forecasting model was established by the equal dimension gray dynamic model of gray system theory based on analyzing road development situation and the present situation of traffic safety. According to the statistics of traffic accidents of Guangdong Province from 2007 to 2012, the number of traffic accidents and casualties in short term were forecasted. The inspection showed that, compared with regression analysis model the equal dimension gray dynamic model, was more accuracy and flexibility in the prediction of Guangdong Province traffic accidents. |
| |
| Keywords: | traffic accident equal dimension gray dynamic model gray system theory |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《仲恺农业工程学院学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《仲恺农业工程学院学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
