| 农村劳动力供给灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪秋菊,索志林.农村劳动力供给灰色预测[J].农机化研究,2007(10):40-42,45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪秋菊 索志林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学,经济管理学院,哈尔滨,150030;黑龙江工程学院,管理系,哈尔滨,150050
2. 东北农业大学,人文学院,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 农民就业是解决"三农问题"的关键,而农村劳动力供给是影响农民充分就业的直接因素,科学预测农村劳动力未来供给对于解决农民就业问题意义重大.为此,将农村劳动力供给作为一个系统进行研究,采用灰色系统预测的方法对农村劳动力进行预测,旨在为劳动力供给预测提供一种科学的方法.通过对黑龙江省农村劳动力的研究得知,黑龙江农村劳动力总量将不断增长,而男女劳动力参与率差距将进一步缩小.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业经济 农村劳动力 分析 供给 灰色系统预测 农村 劳动力供给 灰色预测 Gray System Supply Labor Rural Analysis 率差 男女劳动力 增长 黑龙江省 预测的方法 科学预测 供给预测 灰色系统 研究 意义 就业问题 农民充分就业 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-188X（2007）10-0040-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-01-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-25 |
The Forecasting Analysis for Rural Labor Supply by Gray System |
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| WANG Qiu-ju,SUO Zhi-lin.The Forecasting Analysis for Rural Labor Supply by Gray System[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,2007(10):40-42,45. |
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| Authors: | WANG Qiu-ju SUO Zhi-lin |
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| Institution: | 1.Northeast Agricultural University, 3.College of Economy and Management; b.College of Culture, Harbin 150030, China; 2.Deprtment of Management, Heilongjiang Engineering College, Harbin 150050, China |
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| Abstract: | Peasant employment problem is the key to resolve the three problems of agriculture, and rural labor supply directly has an influence on full employment. It is important to estimate rural labor supply in future. This paper studies rural supply as system, and forecasts the qualities of rural labor by gray system, in order to provide a scientific method. This paper draws a conclusion that the gross of rural labor is increasing, and the gap between male and female labor participating in work is decreasing. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural economy rural labor analysis labor supply gray system |
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