| 基于系统动力学的校园碳收支测算模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡玥昕,江洪,王颖.基于系统动力学的校园碳收支测算模型及应用[J].浙江农林大学学报,2014,31(6):850-859. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡玥昕 江洪 王颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江农林大学 浙江省森林生态系统碳循环与固碳减排重点实验室, 浙江 临安 3113002.南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所, 江苏 南京 210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学重大基金资助项目(61190114);国家重点基础研究发展规划(“973”计划)项目(2011CB302705,2011CB302705,2010CB950702&2010CB428503);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171324);上海市战略性新兴产业重大项目(重大2013-14号) |
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| 摘 要： | 以系统动力学VensimPLE软件为技术平台, 结合Li COR-6400与Li COR-8100观测数据, 以浙江农林大学东湖校区为研究对象, 建立校园碳收支测算模型, 对校园中人类活动系统碳排放与自然生态系统碳收支分别进行了测算, 并提出低碳建设参考路径。模型测算结果表明:校园全年整体表现为碳源, 年碳排放量为4 147.48 t·a-1, 平均单位面积碳排放量为3.24 t·m-2·a-1; 人类活动碳排放量5 555.45 t·a-1, 人均碳排放强度为24.0 kg·人-1·月-1, 其中, 生活办公用电排碳量最大。自然生态系统年固碳量1 407.96 t·a-1, 季节变化呈现双峰特征, 春秋两季较高, 冬季最低。单位绿化面积碳吸收量为187.0 g·m-2·月-1。同时, 低碳校园情景模拟中通过绿地碳汇、人均用能与交通用能等因素的共同控制, 可比原始状态再实现29%的碳排放削减, 说明校园低碳建设仍有一定发展空间。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态学 碳收支 系统动力学 VensimPLE软件 测算模型 校园 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-12-03 |
System dynamics modeling for carbon budget at a university campus |
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| HU Yuexin;JIANG Hong;WANG Ying.System dynamics modeling for carbon budget at a university campus[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2014,31(6):850-859. |
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| Authors: | HU Yuexin;JIANG Hong;WANG Ying |
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| Institution: | 1.Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration, Zhejiang A & F University, Lin'an 311300, Zhejiang, China2.International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, China |
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| Abstract: | To model the carbon budget trend at Zhejiang A & F University over 2012 and to measure the carbon budget on a campus-level scale, a system dynamics model was developed using Vensim.The parametric data of the model was based on the observed data from Li-COR 6400 and Li-COR 8100. Results showed that the carbon emission for 2012 was 4 147.48 t·a-1 and per square meter discharge of 3.24 t·m-2·a-1 on average, meaning the campus was a carbon source to the atmosphere. Carbon emissions from human activities was 5 555.45 t·month-1, and per person discharge of 0.024 t·month-1 on average. Emissions from electricity consumption were the largest among all kinds of human activities. The carbon sink for plants reached 1 407.96 t·a-1 which meant per square meter of green space fixed an average of 187 g·month-1 of C. The seasonal change of C sequestration showed bimodal characteristics, appearing higher in spring and autumn, but lowest in winter. Compared to original conditions, by simultaneously controlling the carbon sink for green space (increased to 224 g·m-2), the per capita energy consumption (decreased to 428.55 g·d-1), and the transport energy consumption(decreased to 163 kg·d-1); the low-carbon scenario achieved a 29% reduction in carbon emissions. |
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