| 基于WRF模式的短期风速预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐永清,刘春生,张弛,王庆祥.基于WRF模式的短期风速预报研究[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(8):3539-3541,3615. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐永清 刘春生 张弛 王庆祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030
2. 上海市环境科学研究院,上海,200233 |
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| 摘 要： | 使用WRF模式对黑龙江省东部地区2009年7月～2010年6月期间的风速进行预报研究,并与测风塔70 m实测风速比较,分析模式的预报性能和误差大小。结果表明,测风塔实测年平均风速5.0 m/s,预报年平均风速为6.1 m/s,相关系数高达0.71,WRF模式能够很好地预报出风速的变化趋势;WRF模式准确地反映出实际风速的月变化趋势,除1月外,各月预报值均大于实测值,5和9月误差较大;预报风速与实测风速在各时刻相关性非常高,相关系数均在0.60以上,相对误差与均方根误差均是夜间大、白天小;WRF模式预报的主导风向与实测一致,但数值略小,对年风向频率具有较好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | WRF模式 风速 短期预报 误差 |
Study of Short-term Wind Speed Forecast Based on WRF |
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| Institution: | XU Yong-qing et al(Heilongjiang Climate Center,Haerbin,Heilongjiang 150030) |
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| Abstract: | WRF was used to study on wind speed forecasting in Eastern Heilongjiang Province during July 2009 to June 2010.Results were compared to the observation values at height of 70 meters by anemometer tower to analyze the forecasting ability and errors,showing that,the average annual observation value of anemometer tower is 5.0 m/s,while forecasting value is 6.1 m/s,sharing the correlation coefficient as 0.71,indicating the good performance of WRF.Except for January,forecasting values of each month by WRF is bigger than observation values,though the monthly variation trend is well simulated.Correlativity of hourly forecasting and observation values is always bigger than 0.6,while relative error and root mean square showed a bigger-in-day and smaller-at-night trend.Main wind direction forecasted by WRF is accord with the observation values with a slight decrease,while the annual wind direction frequency forecasting is satisfying on some extend. |
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| Keywords: | WRF Wind velocity Short-term forecasting Error |
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