| 生长模型预测法在杨树细菌溃疡病流行预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓光,高克祥.生长模型预测法在杨树细菌溃疡病流行预测中的应用[J].林业科学,1998,34(4):123-128. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓光 高克祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北农业大学林学院,保定,071000 |
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| 摘 要： | 生长模型预测法在杨树细菌溃疡病流行预测中的应用刘晓光高克祥（河北农业大学林学院保定０７１０００关键词杨树细菌溃疡，生长模型预测，复循环病害，管理策略由Ｘａｎｔｈｏｍｏｎａｓｐｏｐｕｌｉｓｕｂｓｐ．ｐｏｐｕｌｉ（Ｒｉｄé）Ｒｉｄé＆Ｒｉｄé引起的杨树细...
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| 关 键 词： | 杨树细菌溃疡，生长模型预测，复循环病害，管理策略 |
APPLICATION OF GROWTH MODEL FORECASTING METHOD TO EPIDEMIC FORECASTING OF THE POPLAR BACTERIAL CANKER |
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| Liu Xiaoguang,Gao Kexiang.APPLICATION OF GROWTH MODEL FORECASTING METHOD TO EPIDEMIC FORECASTING OF THE POPLAR BACTERIAL CANKER[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,1998,34(4):123-128. |
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| Authors: | Liu Xiaoguang Gao Kexiang |
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| Institution: | Forestry College of Hebei Agricultural University Baoding 071000 |
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| Abstract: | Application of growth model forecasting method in epidemic forecasting of the poplar bacterial canker was discussed. The result of nonlinear regression analysis was that the Logistic growth model was superior by testing for appropriateness. The accuracy of the model was higher by predicting and examining with the data outside the model, so its practicability was verified. It also showed that this disease was a polycyclic disease, so that appropriate management tactics of disease control and forecasting should be taken. |
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