| 2010年锦州地区春季首场透雨天气及其增雨潜势预报浅析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李卓立,鄢志宇,杨桂娟.2010年锦州地区春季首场透雨天气及其增雨潜势预报浅析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(20):12330-12333,12355. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李卓立 鄢志宇 杨桂娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁省锦州市气象局,辽宁,锦州,121000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]研究2010年锦州地区春季首场透雨天气及其增雨潜势预报。方法]从天气形势特点、主要影响系统、预报服务、人工增雨作业等方面,对2010年锦州地区春季首场透雨的天气过程进行全面总结。结果]此次透雨降水天气形势特点为高空冷空气偏弱、低空暖湿气流明显;主要影响系统为高空槽、高空切变线和地面蒙古气旋;地面倒槽系统北上与蒙古气旋同位相打通,为锦州地区降水提供了一定的能量和水汽,这是产生这场透雨的关键原因之一。数值预报产品在预报服务工作中起到了一定的指示作用,形势场预报较为准确、降水预报偏差较大,因此预报服务中不能简单完全依靠,应该结合实况监测资料进行综合分析应用。结论]该研究为锦州全区大范围成功进行人工增雨作业起到了保障作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 春季透雨 天气形势 增雨潜势 预报服务 锦州地区 |
Shallow Analysis on the First Spring Soaking Rain Weather and Precipitation Potential Forecast in Jinzhou Area in 2010 |
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| Institution: | LI Zhuo-li et al (Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau in Liaoning Province,Jinzhou,Liaoning 121000) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and the precipitation potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010.Method] From the weather situation characteristic,main influence system,forecast service,artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on,the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was comprehensively summarized.Result] The weather situation characteristic of soaking rain was that the high-altitude cold air was weak,and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious.The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough,the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolia cyclone.The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through the same phase of Mongolia cyclone,which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area.It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain.The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work.The situation field forecast was accurate,but the precipitation forecast deviation was big.Therefore,the forecast service couldn't depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally.It should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively.Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role for carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou. |
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| Keywords: | Spring soaking rain Weather situation Precipitation potential Forecast service Jinzhou area |
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