| 温室番茄灰霉病流行动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑超,刘学敏,张箭.温室番茄灰霉病流行动态预测[J].东北农业大学学报,2007,38(2):181-186. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑超 刘学敏 张箭 |
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| 作者单位： | 绥芬河出入境检验检疫局,黑龙江,绥芬河,157300;东北农业大学农学院,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 2001～2003年对黑龙江省绥芬河市两个代表性温室的番茄灰霉病进行了系统调查,通过分析病叶率和严重度之间的关系建立了温室番茄灰霉病的I-S关系模型。利用多种数学模型拟合田间灰霉病增长变化趋势,通过比较绝定系数(R2)和剩余均方(RMS),证明Logistic模型能较好地拟合温室番茄灰霉病的田间动态变化过程。分析发病因素,指出初始病情(Xt1)、日平均温度(T)和日平均20～30℃的小时数是影响温室番茄灰霉表观侵染速率的最重要因素,利用这3个因素可以预测病害增长速率,结合田间流行趋势模型作者组建了温室番茄灰霉病预测预报的模拟模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 番茄灰霉病 I-S关系 表观侵染速率 动态预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-9369（2007）02-0181-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-06 |
Epidemic dynamic forecasting of tomato gray mould caused by Botrytis cinerea in green house |
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| ZHENG Chao,LIU Xuemin,ZHANG Jian.Epidemic dynamic forecasting of tomato gray mould caused by Botrytis cinerea in green house[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2007,38(2):181-186. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Chao LIU Xuemin ZHANG Jian |
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| Institution: | 1. Suifenhe Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Suifenhe Heilongjiang 157300 China;2. College of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China |
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| Abstract: | Tomato gray mould of two green houses was systemic investigated in Suifenhe city,Heilongjiang Province in 2001-2003.By analyzing relationships between incidence and severity of tomato gray mould,the I-S relationship model was established.Some types of growing models were applied to simulate increased tendency of tomato gray mould in green house,by comparing absolute coefficient(R2) and residual mean-square(RMS),the results indicated that Logistic model was the best one for simulating the disease dynamic progress curve.Analyzing disease progress factors,this paper indicates initial disease incidence(Xt1),daily average tempareture(T) and daily average hours from 20 ℃ to 30 ℃ are the most important factors that affect apparent infection rate,and use of the factors can forecast apparent infection rate.Combining field disease progress model,the simulation model for forecasting tomato gray mould in green house was developed. |
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| Keywords: | tomato gray mould I-S relationship apparent infection rate dynamic forecasting |
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