| 滴灌条件下北疆棉铃虫发生程度和发生预期的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘政,孙艳,贾文明,李保成.滴灌条件下北疆棉铃虫发生程度和发生预期的研究[J].新疆农业科学,2010,47(2):420-423. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘政 孙艳 贾文明 李保成 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆农垦科学院棉花所,新疆石河子,832000
2. 新疆生产建设兵团农六师新湖农场,新疆玛纳斯,832000 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆农垦科学院青年基金专项，新疆生产建设兵团农业局病虫害防治专项项目"滴灌条件下北疆陆地棉主要病虫害发生规律及防治技术" |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】探讨北疆棉区棉铃虫发生和气象条件的关系。【方法】通过对新湖垦区膜下滴灌棉田棉铃虫系统调查,结合当地气象资料研究,明确了积雪厚度与棉铃虫年发生程度的关系。【结果】建立了年发生程度与积雪厚度的数学模型Y=0.015X2-0.082X+0.884;应用期距预测法对棉铃虫一代和二代高峰期进行预测,构建了两个数学模型Y1=-0.839X12+35.742X1-341.685和Y2=1.157X22-60.187X2+816.588。【结论】对以上三个数学模型进行回判和预测验证,准确性较高,可以作为该区棉铃虫预测预报模型使用。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉铃虫 积雪厚度 高峰期 预测模型 |
Study on Forecast of Occurrence Degree and Emergence Period for Cotton Bollworm on Drip Irrigation Condition of North Xinjiang |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective and Conclusion】Based on the survey of cotton bollworm irrigation condition of cotton field under drip,combining with local weather factor,the relations between thickness of snow and occurrence degree of cotton bollworm were investigated.【Result】The author has built a long term prediction model Y=0.015 X2-0.082 X+0.884.Using periodic distance forecast method as first generation and second generation of cotton bollworm to predict the peak period,the two mathematical models of:Y1=-0.839 X12+35.742 X1-341.685 and Y2=1.157 X22-60.187 X2+816.588 was set up.【Conclusion】Finally,the above three models can provide prediction and forecasting model for occurrence of cotton bollworm. |
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| Keywords: | cotton bollworm thickness of snow the peak period model of predict |
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