| 时空尺度对灰色系统理论预测秸秆折标煤量的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈浩,赵兵舰,杨柳叶,田永兰,田旺,吕玮,张化永.时空尺度对灰色系统理论预测秸秆折标煤量的影响研究[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(13):241-252. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈浩 赵兵舰 杨柳叶 田永兰 田旺 吕玮 张化永 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学工程生态学与非线性科学研究中心，北京 102206;;2. 华北电力大学能源电力创新研究院，北京 102206; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2017ZX07101003）和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2021MS047）联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 能源供给潜力的准确预测对秸秆生物质资源开发具有重要意义，数据的时空尺度对预测精度有重要的影响。在不同的时间尺度（7、10、12和15a）下研究了灰色系统理论Grey Model（1,1）模型及其拓展形式对全国、京津冀、河北三个空间尺度上秸秆折标煤量的预测精度，确定各空间尺度上的最优模型和数据时间尺度，分析影响可收集秸秆折标煤量的主要因素，并得到2021-2030年的预测结果。结果表明，灰色Verhulst模型的预测效果整体最好，10a时间尺度下的预测精度要明显高于7a、12a和15a，全国地区的预测精度为99.69%和99.72%，高于京津冀和河北省地区的预测精度；全国主要农作物和粮食农作物可收集秸秆折标煤量主要受到播种面积和单位面积产量双因素的影响，而京津冀和河北地区的主要农作物和粮食农作物可收集秸秆折标煤量则主要受单位面积产量的影响；2021-2030年的预测结果表明，全国主要农作物和主要粮食作物的可收集秸秆折标煤量基本稳定，而京津冀和河北地区的秸秆可收集折标煤量呈增加趋势，且主要粮食农作物的秸秆折标煤量的增速高于主要农作物秸秆折标煤量的增速。研究结果反映了京津冀协同发展对京津冀地区尤其是河北现代化农业格局发展和秸秆生物质资源量的影响，得到了不同空间尺度上影响秸秆折标煤量的关键因子，对灰色系统理论预测秸秆生物质资源潜力、推动能源格局转变有理论意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 秸秆 灰色系统理论 时空尺度 能源供给潜力 秸秆折标煤量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/4/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/7/14 0:00:00 |
Influence of spatial-temporal scale on the prediction of standard coal quantity of collectible straw |
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| Chen Hao,Zhao Bingjian,Yang Liuye,Tian Yonglan,Tian Wang,Lyu Wei,Zhang Huayong.Influence of spatial-temporal scale on the prediction of standard coal quantity of collectible straw[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2022,38(13):241-252. |
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| Authors: | Chen Hao Zhao Bingjian Yang Liuye Tian Yonglan Tian Wang Lyu Wei Zhang Huayong |
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| Institution: | 1. Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;;2. Energy and Electric Power Innovation Institute, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; |
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| Abstract: | An accurate prediction of energy supply potential has great significance for the development of straw biomass resources. In particular, the spatial-temporal scale of data has an important influence on prediction accuracy. This research aims to investigate the prediction accuracies of the grey system theory GM (1, 1) and its extended form on the standard coal quantity of straw at different time scales (7, 10, 12, and 15 years) and different spatial scales (China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, and Hebei Province), in order to determine the optimal model and data time scale at each spatial scale. Furthermore, the main factors were also determined to affect the prediction accuracy. The standard coal quantity was predicted in each region from 2021 to 2030. The results showed that: 1) The grey Verhulst model performed the best to predict the standard coal quantity at all spatial scales, where the 10-year prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of 7, 12, and 15 years. Moreover, the fitting precision of the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops in China was 99.56% and 99.52%, respectively, which were higher than those in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (98.88% and 98.68%) and Hebei Province (98.99% and 98.65%), respectively. 2) The standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops in China was mainly affected by the sown area and yield per unit area. The correlation coefficient between the standard coal quantity and the sown area was 0.993, and 0.969 for the main and grain crops, respectively, which were higher than those in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (-0.709 and 0.401), and Hebei Province (-0.463 and 0.602). By contrast, the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Hebei Province were mainly affected by the cereal yield per unit area. The correlation coefficient between the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops and the cereal yield per unit area in China were 0.974 and 0.969, respectively, which were both lower than those in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (0.979 and 0.985), and Hebei Province (0.985 and 0.981). 3) The prediction of the grey Verhulst model with the 10-year data showed that the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops of China was basically stable in the next 10 years (from 2021 to 2030), compared with 2020. It infers that the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops of China reached 297.3, and 256.9 million tons, respectively, in 2030. More importantly, the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the main and grain crops gradually increased in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Hebei Province during the period 2021 to 2030. Moreover, the growth rate of the standard coal quantity of collectible straw for the grain crops was higher than that for the main crops between 2021 and 2030. The finding can provide a strong reference to predict the energy potential for the development practice by grey system theory. |
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| Keywords: | straw grey system theory spatial-temporal scale energy supply potential standard coal quantity of straw |
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