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| 河北省两熟产区冬小麦气象干旱风险分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 李晴,李春强,卢建立,甄文超.河北省两熟产区冬小麦气象干旱风险分析[J].河北农业大学学报,2010,33(5). |
| 作者姓名： | 李晴 李春强 卢建立 甄文超 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河北农业大学农学院,河北保定,071001;河北省雄县气象局,河北雄县,071800 2. 河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄,050021 3. 河北省保定市气象局,河北保定,071000 4. 河北农业大学植物保护学院,河北保定,071001 |
| 基金项目： | 国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目课题"黄淮海中北部平原小麦玉米两熟丰产高效技术集成研究与示范" |
| 摘 要： | 选取河北省山前平原区和黑龙港区的10个县1973-2007年气象资料,计算冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,用气候生产潜力偏离光温生产潜力的差值反映干旱状况。计算出干旱减产率及不同干旱等级在不同区域发生的风险概率,并与冬小麦前、中、后期的自然水分亏缺率进行相关分析。结果表明:河北省两熟产区冬小麦气候生产潜力低、干旱减产率高、冬小麦气象干旱风险高,且区域之间差异大,年际间波动明显。冬小麦中、后期自然水分亏缺率与干旱减产率的相关性极显著。 |
| 关 键 词： | 河北省 冬小麦 气象干旱 风险分析 |
Analysis on the risk of meteorological drought to winter wheat in Hebei province |
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| LI Qing,LI Chun-qiang,LU Jian-li,ZHEN Wen-chao.Analysis on the risk of meteorological drought to winter wheat in Hebei province[J].Journal of Agricultural University of Hebei,2010,33(5). | |
| Authors: | LI Qing LI Chun-qiang LU Jian-li ZHEN Wen-chao |
| Institution: | LI Qing1,2,LI Chun-qiang3,LU Jian-li4,ZHEN Wen-chao5(1.College of Agronomy,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071001,China,2.Meteorological Bureau of Xiongxian,Xiongxian 071800,3.Hebei Institute of Meteorological Science,Shijiazhuang 050021,4.Meteorological Bureau of Baoding,Baoding 071000,5.College of Plant Protection,China) |
| Abstract: | 35 years(1973-2007) meteorological data of ten counties in the piedmont plain area of Hebei province were selected to calculate the temperature and light productive potentialities and climatic productive potentialities of the winter wheat.The drought conditions were reflected by the deviation difference between the temperature and light productive potentialities and climatic productive potentialities.Underproduction rate on drought and different levels of drought were calculated to analyze the risk probabil... |
| Keywords: | Hebei province winter wheat meteorological drought risk analysis |
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