| 基于协整分析的池州市建设用地扩展驱动因子分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张乐勤,张荷花,陈素平,王文琴,许信旺.基于协整分析的池州市建设用地扩展驱动因子分析[J].水土保持通报,2013(4):37-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张乐勤 张荷花 陈素平 王文琴 许信旺 |
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| 作者单位： | 池州学院资源环境与旅游系, 安徽 池州 247000;华阴市住建局房管所, 陕西 华阴 714200;池州学院经济贸易系, 安徽 池州 247000;池州学院政法管理系, 安徽 池州 247000;池州学院资源环境与旅游系, 安徽 池州 247000 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省教育厅重点研究课题“基于‘外部性理论’条件下小流域生态补偿机制与实施途径研究”(2010sk502zd);国家自然科学基金项目“不同围垦利用对淡水湖泊湿地土壤呼吸的影响及机理研究”(41071337) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对安徽省池州市建设用地快速扩展的现状,依据2000-2011年时间序列数据,运用空间分析模型对建设用地扩展特征进行了动态分析,采用计量经济分析的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量误差修正模型等方法,对建设用地扩展驱动因子进行了定量测度。结果表明:(1)2000-2011年池州市建设用地年平均扩展速率为3.49%,2000-2005年扩展速度为1.70%,2006-2010年扩展速度为4.59%;(2)经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展存在单向因果关系;(3)长期来看,经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展的弹性系数分别为-3.663 8和2.264 7,在短期为-0.312 3和0.328 7。表明增长经济总量,提高经济运行质量,控制固定资产投资规模是减缓建设用地扩展重要途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 建设用地扩展 协整检验 Granger因果检验 向量误差修正模型 池州市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/8/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/9/29 0:00:00 |
Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province |
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| ZHANG Le-qin,ZHANG He-hu,CHEN Su-Ping,WANG Wen-qin and XU Xin-wang.Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2013(4):37-42. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Le-qin ZHANG He-hu CHEN Su-Ping WANG Wen-qin and XU Xin-wang |
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| Institution: | Resource, Environment and Tourism Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China;Estate Administration Office of Housing & Urban Rural Development Bureau of Huayin City, Huayin, Shaanxi 714200, China;Economic and Trade Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China;Political and Legal Management Department, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China;Resource, Environment and Tourism Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China |
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| Abstract: | With the time series data during the period of 2000-2011,dynamic analysis was used with spatial models on expansion characteristics of construction land in Chizhou City,Anhui Province.Co-integration test,Granger causality test and vector error correction model approach in econometric analysis were adopted to quantitatively measure the driving factors of built-up land expansion.The results showed that:(1)Between 2000and 2011,annual average expansion speed of construction land was 3.49%in Chizhou City while it was 1.70% and 4.59%in 2000-2005and 2006-2010respectively;(2)Economic growth and fixed asset investment had an unidirectional causality to construction land expansion;(3)In a long term,the elastic coefficient of economic growth and fixed asset investment to construction land expansion was-3.663 8and 2.264 7respectively;in a short term,it was-0.312 3and 0.328 7respectively,which indicated that the important way to slow down the construction land expansion is to increase total economy,improve the quality of economic operation and control the scale of fixed asset investment. |
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| Keywords: | construction land expansion co-integration test Granger causality test vector error correction model Chizhou City |
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