| 北京市西北部生态涵养区未来土地利用及生态系统服务变化情景模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈新云,王甜,李宝健.北京市西北部生态涵养区未来土地利用及生态系统服务变化情景模拟[J].西北林学院学报,2021,36(1):86-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈新云 王甜 李宝健 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.国家林业和草原局 调查规划设计院，北京 100714；2.常州工学院 计算机信息工程学院，江苏 常州 213032；3.中国石油天然气股份有限公司 管道分公司，河北 廊坊 065000） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技攻关项目(2013FY111600);国家自然科学基金(青年基金项目)(31800392)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 以北京市西北部生态涵养区为研究区，探讨未来的土地利用变化对生态系统固碳和产水量服务的影响。利用FLUS模型耦合马尔可夫链（Markov chain）预测了2030年自然演变、生态控制和城市快速发展情景下的土地利用格局，并利用InVEST模型估算了2015和2030年3种土地利用情景下的固碳和产水量服务，最后评价了土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响特征。结果表明，在城市快速发展情景下，建设用地面积的增长幅度最大(+39.57%)，而林地在生态控制情景下预计增加152.38 km2(+3.10%)。生态控制情景具有最大的碳储量和产水量(99.53×106Mg和361.50×107m3)，其中林地是重要的供给区域。城市快速发展情景下灌木林地单位面积变化对碳储量的影响强度最大，自然演变情景下未利用地单位面积变化对产水量的影响强度最大。本研究结果可以为决策者制定区域生态保护的土地利用政策提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态涵养区 生态系统服务 土地利用情景 FLUS模型 InVEST模型 |
Simulation of the Future Land Use and Ecosystem Services in the Ecological Conservation Area in Northwestern Beijing |
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| CHEN Xin-yun,WANG Tian,LI Bao-jian.Simulation of the Future Land Use and Ecosystem Services in the Ecological Conservation Area in Northwestern Beijing[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2021,36(1):86-95. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Xin-yun WANG Tian LI Bao-jian |
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| Institution: | (1.Academy of Forest Inventory and Planning of Nationality Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100714,China;2.Department of Computer Information and Engineering,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213032,Jiangsu,China; 3.China National Petroleum Corporation Pipeline Branch,Langfang 065000,Hebei,China) |
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| Abstract: | Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystem and are closely related to human well-being.However,how land use change impacts ecosystem services is not yet clear.Therefore,understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services to land use change is crucial to the development of systematic land use planning.This study aimed to explore the effect of future land use change on ecosystem carbon and water yield services in the ecological conservation area in northwestern Beijing.By employing the FLUS model and InVEST model,this study first simulated land use changes from 2015 to 2030 under three scenarios,i.e.,ecological land control,and rapid urban development and quantifies the three ecosystem services in a spatially explicit way.The effects of land use changes on these ecosystem services were evaluated.Our results showed that the area of construction land increases the most(+39.57%)under the rapid urban development scenario,while the forestland is expected to increase 152.38 km^2(+3.10%)under the ecological control scenario.The ecological land control scenario has the largest amount of carbon storage and water yield(99.53×10^6 Mg and 361.50×10^7 m^3),among which forestland is an important supply area.Under the rapid urban development scenario,the change in unit area of shrub land has the greatest impact on carbon storage,while unused land has the largest impact on water yield under the business as usual scenario.These results can contribute to the improvement of the knowledge for policy makers and land managers to halt the loss of ecosystem services and can provide scientific support for sustainable land use management. |
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| Keywords: | ecological conservation area ecosystem services land use scenarios FLUS model InVEST model |
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