| 四川省第一产业从业人员变化及其驱动力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王谢,曾其国,唐甜,张建华,祝钰虹.四川省第一产业从业人员变化及其驱动力分析[J].中国农学通报,2022,38(14):155-164. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王谢 曾其国 唐甜 张建华 祝钰虹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川省农业科学院农业资源与环境研究所,成都 610066;2.农业农村部西南山地农业环境重点实验室,成都 610066;3.成都师范学院,成都 611130 |
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| 基金项目： | 财政部和农业农村部：国家现代农业产业技术体系“国家蚕桑产业技术体系”(CARS-18)； |
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| 摘 要： | 农业人口是四川省农业发展的重要基础之一,探明四川省第一产业从业人员变化的关键驱动因子,对于区域政策的制定具有重要的现实意义。基于此,本研究从人员从业结构、经济发展水平、医疗教育资源、农业科技进步、人口质量、迁移成本、空间位置和耕作条件等8个方面选择了25个潜在驱动因子,采用人口测度法、逐步回归分析法和结构方程模型,以1999—2008年和2008—2018年两个时期四川省5个经济区共计21个地市（州）为研究对象,分析了第一产业从业人员数量的变化特征及影响其变化的驱动因子。结果显示：①1999—2018年内,80.95%的地市（州）第一产业从业人员持续减少,9.52%的地市（州）第一产业从业人员在增加后持续减少。②1999—2018年内第一产业从业人员的改变与地形密切相关。③除地形外,1999—2008年的主要驱动因子还有人口出生率、中学生数量和三产产值的变化,2008—2018年的主动驱动因子则还有房价和农业机械化水平。④在1999—2008年中,区域平均坡度对第一产业从业人员年变化率的影响以通过影响中学生数量的年变化率和出生率的年变化率的间接效应为主,但直接效应不可忽视。⑤在2008—2018年中,农用电机数量的年变化率直接有效影响第一产业从业人员年变化率。农业机械的推广和应用可以促使更多的人口从事第一产业的生产劳动。上述研究结果暗示了农业劳动力流失的内在机制存在明显的时间分异。目前,虽然农业劳动力的地域分异特征明显,但农业科技的直接效应已经进一步凸显,未来将有望依赖农业科技打破第一产业从业人员的地域分异规律。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济区 农村劳动力 地表起伏度 农业工业化 人口流动 人力资本投入 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-01 |
Change Characteristics and Driving Factors of Employees in the Primary Industry in Sichuan Province |
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| WANG Xie,ZENG Qiguo,TANG Tian,ZHANG Jianhua,ZHU Yuhong.Change Characteristics and Driving Factors of Employees in the Primary Industry in Sichuan Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2022,38(14):155-164. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xie ZENG Qiguo TANG Tian ZHANG Jianhua ZHU Yuhong |
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| Institution: | 1.Agricultural Resources and Environment Institute, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066;2.Southwest Mountain Agricultural Environment Key Laboratory, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chengdu 610066;3.Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu 611130 |
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| Abstract: | Agricultural population is one of the important bases of agricultural development in Sichuan Province. Finding out the key driving factors for the change of the primary industry employees in Sichuan Province has practical significance for the formulation of regional policies. Based on this, the paper selected 25 potential driving factors from eight aspects of employment structure, economic development level, medical and education resources, agricultural science and technology progress, population quality, migration cost, spatial location and farming conditions. Using population measurement method, stepwise regression analysis method and structural equation model, the paper analyzed the change characteristics of the number of employees in the primary industry and the driving factors affecting the change with a total of 21 cities in five economic zones in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2018 as the research objects. The results showed that, (1) from 1999 to 2018, the primary industry employees in 80.95 % of cities (prefectures) continued to decrease, and the primary industry employees in 9.52 % of cities (prefectures) continued to decrease after an increase; (2) the change of employees in the primary industry from 1999 to 2018 was closely related to terrain; (3) in addition to terrain, the main driving factors from 1999 to 2008 included the change of population birth rate, the number of middle school students and the output value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry; the active driving factors from 2008 to 2018 also included housing price and agricultural mechanization level; (4) in 1999-2008, the impact of regional average slope on the annual gradient rate of the primary industry employees was mainly through the indirect effect on the annual gradient of secondary school students and birth rate, but the direct effect could not be ignored; (5) in 2008-2018, the annual change rate of agricultural motor number had a direct and effective impact on the annual change rate of employees in the primary industry, the promotion and application of agricultural machinery could promote more people to engage in the production of the primary industry. The above research results suggest that the internal mechanism of the loss of agricultural labor has obvious time differentiation. At present, although the regional differentiation of agricultural labor force is obvious, the direct effect of agricultural science and technology has been further highlighted, and it is expected to rely on agricultural science and technology to break the regional differentiation law of employees in the primary industry in the future. |
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| Keywords: | economic zone rural labor force relief degree of land surface agricultural industrialization population movement human capital investment |
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