| 非洲猪瘟对我国肉类价格波动的影响研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 占志,李美琪,季勇,李辉尚.非洲猪瘟对我国肉类价格波动的影响研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析[J].中国农机化学报,2021(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 占志 李美琪 季勇 李辉尚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业农村部农业大数据重点实验室;中国农业科学院人事局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(72073131);中国农业科学院创新工程(CAAS—AII—2016);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2020JKY025)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为明确非洲猪瘟对生猪等畜产品价格产生重要影响,构建包含非洲猪瘟疫情的猪肉等主要肉类产品价格的动态面板数据,运用PVAR模型研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉、白条鸡、牛肉和羊肉四种主要肉类价格波动的动态影响。结果表明,非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格的影响并不一致,从冲击方向上看,非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉价格的冲击主要为正,对白条鸡价格的冲击在考察期内均为正向,对牛羊肉价格的冲击在零值上下波动且并不显著;从冲击大小上看,非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉的冲击影响最大,白条鸡价格次之、牛羊肉价格最小;从持续时间上看,非洲猪瘟疫情对白条鸡价格的冲击持续时间最长,猪肉价格次之、牛羊肉价格最短。在观察期内,四种主要肉类价格受到非洲猪瘟疫情的影响随着时间的推移不同程度的衰减,价格波动的主要影响取决于市场上供求关系的变化。应进一步强化生猪等养殖业规范化标准化生产,完善非洲猪瘟等动物疫情监测预警体系,加强生猪等畜产品市场供需调控,促进生猪等畜牧业的稳定可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 非洲猪瘟 肉类价格 波动影响 PVAR模型 |
Study on the influence of African swine fever on the fluctuation of meat prices in China:Empirical analysis based on PVAR model |
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| Zhan Zhi,Li Meiqi,Ji Yong,Li Huishang.Study on the influence of African swine fever on the fluctuation of meat prices in China:Empirical analysis based on PVAR model[J].Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2021(1). |
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| Authors: | Zhan Zhi Li Meiqi Ji Yong Li Huishang |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Agricultural Information,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data,Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs,Beijing,100081,China;Department of Personnel of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing,100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | To investigate the influence of African swine fever on meat prices,the dynamic effects of African swine fever epidemic on the price fluctuation of pork,white chicken,beef and mutton were investigated based on the dynamic panel data of pork and other major meat products prices including African swine fever epidemic in this paper.The results showed that the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on meat prices was not consistent.In the direction of the impact,the African swine fever epidemic mainly had a positive impact on the fluctuation of pork price and white-sripped chicken price remained positive response during the observation periods,while impact on the beef and mutton prices was close to zero.In terms of the impact size,the African swine fever epidemic had the greatest impact on pork,followed by white-stripped chicken and the lowest price of beef and mutton;and in terms of duration.The impact of African swine fever on the price of white-stripped chicken lasted the longest,followed by the price of pork,and the price of beef and mutton was the shortest.During the observation periods,the main meat prices were affected by the African swine fever epidemic to lower and lower degrees over time,and the main impact of price fluctuations depended on the change of supply and demand in the market.It is necessary to further strengthen the standardized production of pig breeding industry,improve the monitoring and early warning system of animal epidemic situation such as African swine fever,strengthen the regulation of supply and demand of livestock products such as live pigs,and promote the stable and sustainable development of animal husbandry such as live pigs. |
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| Keywords: | African swine fever meat prices volatility and fluctuation PVAR model |
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