| 跨流域调水工程失效概率的模糊事 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺海挺,吴剑国,张爱晖.跨流域调水工程失效概率的模糊事[J].中国农村水利水电,2005,0(3):40-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺海挺 吴剑国 张爱晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学建筑工程学院,杭州,310027 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部重点科技项目“跨流域长距离调水工程的系统风险和安全保障关键技术研究”资助(SCX2002 09)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在缺乏足够数据或信息不完整的情况下，给出失效概率的界限或范围，比给出一确定的单值具有更高的可信度。跨流域调水工程的失效概率分析具有模糊性，这种模糊性来自于测试数据不足、某些边界条件，环境介质，特别是各种荷载作用下调水工程失效概率的模糊性。为了更好地解决调水工程中存在的实际问题，有必要考虑其结构和体系的模糊性。基于型模糊化函数和事件树分析方法，结合南水北调中线工程对跨流域调水工程结构体系的失效概率的模糊化作了初步研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊事件树 型模糊数 南水北调 跨流域调水工程 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2284(2005)03-0040-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月17日 |
Fuzzy Event Tree Failure Probability Analysis Method for Inter-basin Water Transfer Project |
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| HE Hai-ting,WU Jian-guo,ZHANG Ai-hui.Fuzzy Event Tree Failure Probability Analysis Method for Inter-basin Water Transfer Project[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2005,0(3):40-42. |
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| Authors: | HE Hai-ting WU Jian-guo ZHANG Ai-hui |
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| Abstract: | In reliability computation, if data are not sufficient or the information is not complete, giving a range or the limits of the failure probability is better than giving a single definite number. The failure probability calculation of inter-basin water transfer project is fuzzy because of insufficient of data observation, unclear of boundary conditions and environmental medium, especially in the analysis of failure probability for transfer projects under various loading effects. In order to solve the practical engineering problems in the water transfer projects, it is necessary to take account of the fuzziness in the structure and system. On the basis of fuzzy function and event tree methods, a preliminary study on the fuzzy failure probability for the inter-basin water transfer projects is conducted in this article. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy event tree fuzzy number south-to-north water transfer Project inter-basin water transfer project |
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