| 未来气候变化情景下海南岛绿橙种植气候适宜性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈彦希,娄运生,任丽轩,苏磊,汤丽玲,杨建洲.未来气候变化情景下海南岛绿橙种植气候适宜性分析[J].中国农业气象,2022,43(10):786. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈彦希 娄运生 任丽轩 苏磊 汤丽玲 杨建洲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044；2. 海南省气象探测中心，海口570203；3. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京 210044；4. 南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院，南京 210095；5. 农业农村部长江中下游植物营养与肥料重点实验室，南京 210095；6. 江苏省有机固体废弃物资源化协同创新中心，南京 210095；7. 中国地质科学院地球物理地球化学勘查研究所，廊坊 065000 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局地质调查项目（DD20190305）；国家自然科学基金项目（41875177） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于海南岛主岛19个气象站点连续40a（1980-2019年）逐日气象数据及地形等要素，建立空间分析模型，综合确定海南岛绿橙种植气候适宜区指标。在气候适宜度模型基础上构建海南岛绿橙种植温度、日照、降水以及综合适宜度模型，采用地理信息系统（GIS）技术综合分析，利用自然点断法对绿橙种植气候适宜性进行精细化区划，并利用RCP4.5未来气候情景模式模拟数据探讨未来30a（2020-2049年）气候变化情景下海南岛绿橙种植适宜区变化趋势。结果表明：现阶段海南岛绿橙种植最适宜区主要分布于中部地区，面积0.87×104km2，气候适宜度为0.9～1.0；适宜区主要分布于东部局部地区及中西部大部地区，面积1.83×104km2，气候适宜度为0.7～0.9；次适宜区主要分布于西部沿海及中西部海拔较高地区，面积0.51×104km2，气候适宜度为0.4～0.7；不适宜区主要分布于中部山区，面积0.17×104km2，气候适宜度为0～0.4。未来气候变化情景下海南岛气温、降水分布呈较大变化，温度适宜区由四周向中部逐渐缩小，降水适宜区由东部逐渐迁移至中部地区。未来绿橙种植气候最适宜区主要分布于琼中、屯昌和保亭县大部分地区、万宁市西部及白沙县中东部等地。
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| 关 键 词： | 绿橙 适宜性 气候区划 GIS 未来气候变化情景 |
Climate Suitability Analysis of Green Orange Cultivation in Hainan Island under Future Climate Change Scenarios |
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| CHEN Yan-xi,LOU Yun-sheng,REN Li-xuan,SU Lei,TANG Li-ling,YANG Jian-zhou.Climate Suitability Analysis of Green Orange Cultivation in Hainan Island under Future Climate Change Scenarios[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2022,43(10):786. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yan-xi LOU Yun-sheng REN Li-xuan SU Lei TANG Li-ling YANG Jian-zhou |
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| Abstract: | Green orange is a characteristic fruit and plays an important role in local agricultural production in Hainan island. However, few researches have been available regarding the climatic suitability of green orange planting in the island. Based on the last 40a (1980-2019) daily meteorological data, topographical and other factors from 19 meteorological stations in the main island of Hainan island, a spatial analysis model is established to comprehensively determine the climate suitability index for green orange planting in the island. With climate suitability model, this study constructed the suitability models of temperature, sunshine and precipitation, as well as comprehensive suitability model for green orange planting. The methods of geographic information system (GIS) and natural point break were used in finely zoning green orange planting climate suitability. With the model simulation data of RCP4.5 climate scenario, this study assessed the trend of green orange planting suitability zone in the next 30y (2020-2049) under future climate change scenario. The results show that, the most suitable area for green orange planting is mainly distributed in the central region, with the subtotal area being 0.87×104km2, and the climate suitability index ranging from 0.9-1.0; the suitable area is mainly distributed in the eastern local region and most of the central and western regions, with the subtotal area being 1.83×104km2, and the climate suitability index being 0.7-0.9; the subsuitable area is mainly located in the western coastal, central and western high altitude regions, with subtotal area being 0.51×104km2, and the climate suitability index varying from 0.4-0.7; the unsuitable area is mainly distributed in the central mountainous region, with the subtotal area being 0.17×104km2, and the climate suitability index ranging from 0-0.4. Under the future climate scenario, the area with suitable temperature and precipitation will have large change, namely, the area with suitable temperature will gradually shrink from the surrounding to the central regions, the area with suitable precipitation will gradually move from the eastern to the central regions. The most climatic suitable area for future green orange planting will mainly distribute in the most parts of Qiongzhong, Tunchang and Baoting counties, western parts of Wanning, central and eastern parts of Baisha county in the island. |
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| Keywords: | Green orange Suitability Climate zones GIS Future climate scenarios |
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