| 新疆艾比湖流域水资源供需关系预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李艳红,金海龙.新疆艾比湖流域水资源供需关系预测分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李艳红 金海龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院地理系; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金"西部环境和生态科学"重大研究计划项目"90302012";;教育部人文社会科学专项任务项目"干旱区绿洲人地关系演化及优化分析研究"成果(05JDZH031);;新疆师范大学博士启动科研基金项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以2000年艾比湖流域的水资源利用现状为基础,建立了流域水资源供需系统的动力学模型,并结合流域的人口和经济发展状况,计算预测模拟了流域未来30年的可供水量、人口、工业产值、农业产值、生活用水、工业用水、农业用水、生态环境用水等主要8个指标的变化趋势及供需水平衡分析。根据预测结果,对目前和将来用水中可能出现的问题,提出了流域水资源供需水平衡协调的对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 供需预测 系统动力学 新疆艾比湖流域 |
Research on Water Supply and Demand Forecasting in the Aibi Lake Basin of Xinjiang |
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| LI Yan-hong,JIN Hai-long.Research on Water Supply and Demand Forecasting in the Aibi Lake Basin of Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2009(2). |
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| Authors: | LI Yan-hong JIN Hai-long |
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| Institution: | Department of Geography of Life and Environment Science Institute;Xinjiang Normal University;Urumqi 830054;China |
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| Abstract: | Based on foundational data of water resources of the Aibi Lake Basin of Xinjiang in 2000,a system dynamics model of water resources' provide-and-demand system was established considering the situation of population and economic development level.The SD models could predict variable trend of supplied water volume,population,the production value of agriculture and industry,water demand of agriculture and industry and other indexes such as water demand of life and ecological environment,and the change trend of... |
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| Keywords: | water supply and demand forecasting system dynamics the Aibi Lake Basin of Xinjiang |
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