气候和社会经济因素对全球畜禽氮排放的驱动研究 |
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作者姓名: | 程露曦 任琛琛 张秀明 谷保静 |
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作者单位: | 浙江大学公共管理学院, 杭州 310058;浙江大学政策仿真实验室, 杭州 310058;墨尔本大学农业与食品学院, 墨尔本 VIC 3010, 澳大利亚;浙江大学政策仿真实验室, 杭州 310058;浙江大学环境与资源学院, 杭州 310058 |
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基金项目: | 国家自然科学基金委员会国际(地区)合作与交流项目(42061124001) |
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摘 要: | 畜禽氮(N)排放是全球人为氮排放的主要来源,探究其主要影响因素对畜禽氮减排具有重要意义。本研究通过分析全球166个国家畜禽的氮排放强度和氮利用率(NUE)明确畜禽氮排放特征,并运用计量经济学方法探究气候和社会经济因素对畜禽各阶段(包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两个阶段)氮排放强度的影响。结果发现,当前全球全链条畜禽的总氮(活性氮,包括N2O、NH3、NO3-和NOx四种氮素形式)排放量为98 Tg,总NUE (包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两阶段的全链条NUE)为7%,其中用于饲料种植的氮排放占78%。畜禽种类和养殖方式对氮排放强度(以畜禽蛋白质质量计)影响很大,散养鸡氮排放强度最高(1.9 kg·kg-1),山羊和绵羊的氮排放强度最低(0.6 kg·kg-1),反刍动物主要以草和秸秆为食,饲料种植阶段氮排放较低。全球鸡的总NUE最高(9%),奶牛和奶水牛的总NUE最低(5%),单胃动物的饲料转化率较高,因而总NUE高。畜禽氮排放与人均GDP、城市化率和降雨量呈极显著的正相关关系,与温度相关性不显著。研究表明:社会经济发展提升了饲料生产阶段的氮排放强度,但降低了畜禽养殖阶段的氮排放强度并推动了畜禽养殖业的发展。目前饲料生产阶段的氮排放未与经济发展脱钩,未来通过优化畜禽饲料管理推动氮减排至关重要。
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关 键 词: | 畜禽,氮排放,氮利用率,影响因素,种养结合 |
收稿时间: | 2022/3/30 0:00:00 |
Nitrogen emissions from livestock production driven by climate and socioeconomic factors |
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Authors: | CHENG Luxi REN Chenchen ZHANG Xiuming GU Baojing |
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Institution: | School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne VIC 3010, Australia; Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China |
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Abstract: | Livestock nitrogen(N) emissions are the main source of global anthropogenic N emissions. It is crucial to investigate its main influencing factors for livestock N emission reduction. Here, we analyzed the N emission intensity and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE) of livestock in 166 countries worldwide to clarify the characteristics of livestock N emissions, and used econometrics to investigate the influence of major climatic and socioeconomic factors on the N emission intensity at all stages(containing feed production and livestock raising stages). We found that global total livestock N emissions(namely reactive nitrogen, including N2O, NH3, NO3- and NOx) from the whole production chain were 98 Tg(78% from feed production), with an overall NUE(NUE over the whole production chain including feed production and livestock raising stages) of 7%. Different livestock types and feeding methods had influences on the N emission intensity(N emission amount per kilogram of protein), with the highest from backyard chickens(1.9 kg·kg-1) and the lowest from goats and sheep(0.6 kg·kg-1). Ruminants mainly feed on grass and straw with lower N emissions. Chickens had the highest NUE(9%) and dairy cattle and dairy buffalo had the lowest NUE(5%) due to higher feed conversion rates in monogastric animals. Livestock N emissions showed significant positive correlations with GDP per capita, urbanization and rainfall, and insignificant regressions with temperature. The study showed socioeconomic development increased N emission intensity in the feed production stage, but had the opposite effect in the livestock raising stage and promote the development of animal husbandry. The N emissions from feed production have still not decoupled with economic development although it reduced livestock raising N emissions significantly. Thus, it is essential to optimize livestock feed management to promote N emission reduction in the future. |
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Keywords: | livestock nitrogen emissions nitrogen use efficiency influencing factors cropland-based livestock production |
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