| 美国堪萨斯州不同天气事件与土壤类型条件下作物产量预测 |
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| 作者姓名： | WANG Er-D B. B. LITTLE J. A. WILLIAMS YU Yang M. SCHUCKING |
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| 作者单位： | [1]School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023 （China） [2]Tarleton State University, Texas A＆M University System, Stephenville, Texas 76402 （USA） [3]Blackland Research and Extension Center, Texas A＆M University System, Temple, Texas 76502 （USA） [4]Center for Agribusiness Excellence, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, Texas 76402 （USA） |
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| 基金项目： | *1supported by the Risk Management Agency Strategic Data Acquisition and Analysis Division Research Fund of United States Department of Agriculture (No.53-3151-2-00017). |
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| 摘 要： | Computer simulation was used for predictive analysis of the effects of weather and soil type on crop yield in the U.S.crop insurance program.The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was modified to include hail weather events,which completed the modifications necessary to simulate the four most frequent causes of crop yield loss (hail,excessive wet,excessive cold,and excessive dry) associated with soil type in Kansas,USA.At the region level,per hectare yields were simulated for corn,wheat,soybean,and sorghum.We concluded that it was possible to predict crop yields through computer simulation with greater than 93% accuracy.The hail damage model test indicated EPIC could predict hail-soil-induced yield losses reasonably well (R2 > 0.6).The investigation of soil type influence on dryland sorghum and wheat production indicated that Wymore silty clay loam soil and Kenoma silt loam produced the highest sorghum yields statistically;Kuma silt loam,Roxbury silt loam,Crete silty clay loam,and Woodson silt soils produced the second highest sorghum yields statistically;and Richfiled silt loam,Wells loam,and Canadian sandy loam produced the lowest sorghum yields.By contrast,wheat production showed less sensitivity to soil type variation.The less sensitive response of wheat yields to the soil type could be largely due to the unconsidered small-scale variability of soil features.
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| 关 键 词： | 计算机模拟 作物产量 土壤类型 冰雹天气 堪萨斯州 产量损失 美国 粉砂壤土 |
| 收稿时间： | 28 March 2009 |
Simulation of hail and soil type effects on crop yield losses in Kansas, USA |
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| WANG Er-D,B. B. LITTLE,J. A. WILLIAMS,YU Yang,M. SCHUCKING.Simulation of hail and soil type effects on crop yield losses in Kansas, USA[J].Pedosphere,2009,19(5):642-653. |
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| Authors: | WANG Er-D B B LITTLE J A WILLIAMS YU Yang and M SCHUCKING |
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| Institution: | aSchool of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023 (China);bTarleton State University, Texas A&M University System, Stephenville, Texas 76402 (USA);cBlackland Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University System, Temple, Texas 76502 (USA);dCenter for Agribusiness Excellence, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, Texas 76402 (USA) |
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| Abstract: | Computer simulation was used for predictive analysis of the effects of weather and soil type on crop yield in the U.S. crop insurance program. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was modified to include hail weather events, which completed the modifications necessary to simulate the four most frequent causes of crop yield loss (hail, excessive wet, excessive cold, and excessive dry) associated with soil type in Kansas, USA. At the region level, per hectare yields were simulated for corn, wheat, soybean, and sorghum. We concluded that it was possible to predict crop yields through computer simulation with greater than 93% accuracy. The hail damage model test indicated EPIC could predict hail-soil-induced yield losses reasonably well (R2 > 0.6). The investigation of soil type influence on dryland sorghum and wheat production indicated that Wymore silty clay loam soil and Kenoma silt loam produced the highest sorghum yields statistically; Kuma silt loam, Roxbury silt loam, Crete silty clay loam, and Woodson silt soils produced the second highest sorghum yields statistically; and Richfiled silt loam, Wells loam, and Canadian sandy loam produced the lowest sorghum yields. By contrast, wheat production showed less sensitivity to soil type variation. The less sensitive response of wheat yields to the soil type could be largely due to the unconsidered small-scale variability of soil features. |
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| Keywords: | Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model hail damage simulation model |
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