| 850hpa温度在佳木斯地区各站日气温预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹嫦姣,孙洪伟.850hpa温度在佳木斯地区各站日气温预报中的应用[J].农业科学与技术,2017,18(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹嫦姣 孙洪伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 佳木斯市气象局,黑龙江佳木斯,154000 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2012年1月1日~2015年12月31日的ECMWF 850 hpa初始场的温度资料,采取线性插值的方法得到佳木斯地区7个观测站08时和20时的850 hpa温度,结合同时段7个站日最低、最高气温的观测资料,分析各站08时和20时的850 hpa温度与日最低、日最高气温的关系,并建立分县、分月的预报方程,并对其回归效果进行分析,得到适用于佳木斯地区的日最低、最高气温预报方法.结果表明,08时和20时的850 hpa温度与日最低、日最高气温具有明显的相关性,分月分站建立的温度预报方程对日最低、最高气温的预报具有指导意义,有利于预报准确率的提升.
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| 关 键 词： | 850hpa温度 日最高气温 日最低气温 回归方程 相关关系 |
Interpretation of 850 hPa Temperature in Temperature Forecast of Jiamusi Area |
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| Changjiao YIN,Hongwei SUN.Interpretation of 850 hPa Temperature in Temperature Forecast of Jiamusi Area[J].Agricultural Science ＆ Technology,2017,18(4). |
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| Authors: | Changjiao YIN Hongwei SUN |
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| Abstract: | Based on the initial field temperature data of ECMWF 850 hPa from January 2012 to December 2015, linear interpolation method of ECMWF was employed to calculate the 850 hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 of 7 stations (Jiamusi,Tangyuan, Huachuan, Huanan, Fujin, Tongjiang, Fuyuan). Combined with the observed daily minimum and maximum air temperatures at the same time of the 7stations, the correlations of the 850 hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 with the daily maximum or minimum air temperature of the ground meteorological observation stations were established, and the ground observation data in accordance with the relevant analysis and correlation test principle of the prediction equation for factor were primarily selected. Regression method was used to establish forecast equation dividing into counties, month by month. The results showed that the 850hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 were significantly correlated with the daily maximum or minimum air temperature, and the established temperature forecast equation was of certain guiding significance for the forecast of daily minimum and maximum temperature, which could help to improve the forecast accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | 850 hPa temperature Daily air temperature Regression equation Correlation |
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