| 落叶松球果花蝇大发生的模糊聚类分析及其预测模式的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘恒丰,何祥云.落叶松球果花蝇大发生的模糊聚类分析及其预测模式的建立[J].东北林业大学学报,1994,22(1):92-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘恒丰 何祥云 |
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| 作者单位： | 林业部驻内蒙古自治区森林资源监督专员办事处，内蒙古库都尔林业局 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据库都尔林区１９７１～１９９０年物候观察及对同期库都尔，牙克石，图里河等地气象资料，运用数理统计的方法进行分析，其结果落叶松球果花蝇大发生与某些气象因子有关。每年３～５月的气温和降水量，是影响成蝇羽化率的主要气象因子，可构成发生程度天气型样本。对观察资料进行模糊聚类分析其结果，大兴安岭西坡球果花蝇大发生的临界值为０．９，据此建立了落叶松球果花蝇大发生年的预报模式。
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| 关 键 词： | 落叶松 球果花蝇 聚类分析 预测 |
THE FUZZY-CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF HAPPENINGS AND ITS FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE CONE-FLY OF XINGAN LARCH |
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| Liu Hengfeng.THE FUZZY-CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF HAPPENINGS AND ITS FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE CONE-FLY OF XINGAN LARCH[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,1994,22(1):92-100. |
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| Authors: | Liu Hengfeng |
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| Institution: | Liu Hengfeng(The Resident commissioner Office of Forest Resources Supervising in inner Mongolia from Forestry Ministry of China)He Xiangyun(Kuduer Forestry Bureau Inner Mongolia Autonomous) |
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| Abstract: | According to the auther's phynological observation from 1971 to 1990 in Kuduer forestry area and the analysis of climatic data of Kuduer,Yakeshi,Tulihe area and so on by statistic method happenings of cone-fly of xingan larch Strobilomyta lariciola is related to some climate factors which constototes the happening degree specimen of weather type.The results of fuzzy-clustering analysis of some information indicate that the critical value of happenings of xingan larch come-fly is 0.9 in the western slope of the Daxingan Mountains and the happenings forecasting model is developed for cone-fly of xingan larch which provides scientific basis for the forecast of happening degree,of cone-fly. |
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| Keywords: | Cone-larch of larch Clustering analysis Forecastiong model |
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