| Abstract: | The basic hypothesis underlying a population dynamics model for the field vole (Microtus agrestis L.]) in central Scandinavia is described and discussed. The hypothesis is that most aspects of population dynamics of the field vole may be understood by analyzing the nutritional (energy and matter) balance of individual animals and their differential allocation of available nutrients. Digested nutrients are assumed to be utilized for maintenance cost, M; growth, A S; reproduction, R; and dispersion behaviour (including dispersal), D. The simulation model whose main ideas are described verbally is being developed at present. The model is intended to simulate density, age structure, reproductive activity of different categories of the population and spatial distribution; grazing impact apportioned among the most important potential food species (or group); interaction with sympatric rodents, their predators and parasites. Special emphasis is placed on the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. The population dynamics model is of the Monte Carlo type and considers the realization of a series of events by calculating average probabilities and “drawing” random numbers. The model simulates individual animals in a large heterogeneous area. Qualitative predictions based on our basic hypothesis are discussed and compared with available field information. |
