| Abstract: | During a three‐year project from 2003 to 2006, two models have been developed to predict leaf rust (Puccinia recondita and P. triticina) occurrence and to simulate disease incidence progress curves on the upper leaf layers of winter rye (PUCREC) and winter wheat (PUCTRI). As input parameters the models use air temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. PUCREC and PUCTRI firstly calculate daily infection favourability and a cumulative infection pressure index and, in a second step, disease incidence is estimated. An ontogenetic model (SIMONTO) is used to link disease predictions to crop development. PUCREC and PUCTRI have been validated with data from 2001 to 2005. Both models give satisfactory results in simulating leaf rust epidemics and forecasting dates when action thresholds for leaf rust control are exceeded. |
