| 黑龙江省东部地区影响稻瘟病流行的气象因素通径分析及短期预测模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾,鑫.黑龙江省东部地区影响稻瘟病流行的气象因素通径分析及短期预测模型的建立[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(18):133-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾 鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省农业科学院佳木斯分院 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省杰出青年科学基金(JC2015005) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对稻瘟病严重影响黑龙江省东部地区水稻生产这一情况。试验于2006-2015年在黑龙江省东部地区9个地点进行定点、定期调查水稻稻瘟病的发生情况,并收集稻瘟病侵染期的气象因子,采用通径分析及逐步回归的方法对水稻稻瘟病的病情指数与气象因子之间的关系的进行了研究,明确了7月份、8月份的平均气温为影响稻瘟病发生流行的主要气象因子,并建立短期预测模型：Y=-85.171163 0.41315X1 1.23231X2-0.1817X4-0.09418X5 0.167333
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| 关 键 词： | 水稻稻瘟病 通径分析 逐步回归 预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/6/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/9/19 0:00:00 |
Path Analysis of Meteorological Factors Affecting Rice Blast and Short-term Prediction Model Establishment in East Heilongjiang |
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| Abstract: | According to the rice blast severely affected rice production in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province, In 2004 -2013 fixed-point investigation method was used in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province. And meteorological factors were collected in the period of infection of rice blast. The relationship between meteorological factors and rice blast disease index were studied by path analysis and stepwise regression methods. The results show that the average temperature of the predominant influence of meteorological factors blast occurred in July and Augus, With the above equation for 2004 to 2013 were regression, we can see the effect of the simulation equations fit very well. It can be used in the rice blast occurrence of short-term predictionin the eastern region of Heilongjiang Province. |
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| Keywords: | Rice Blast Path analysis Stepwise regression Prediction model |
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