| 利用灰色系统理论对杨圆蚧发生面积预测预报的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘军侠,王海英,刘冬云,刘宽余.利用灰色系统理论对杨圆蚧发生面积预测预报的研究[J].河北林果研究,2001,16(2):166-167,175. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘军侠 王海英 刘冬云 刘宽余 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北农业大学,
2. 东北林业大学, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"八五"科技攻关课题"杨树介壳虫等干部害虫综合防治技术研究"部分内容，专题编号：85-018-03-05 |
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| 摘 要： | 为更好地对杨圆蚧进行测报 ,收集了 1983～ 1988年黑龙江省绥化地区杨圆蚧发生面积资料 ,利用灰色系统理论的GM ( 1,1)模型 ,对杨圆蚧发生情况建立预测模型为 :^X( 1) (k 1) =2 34 0 7 7788e- 0 0 0 0 0 0 712 2k 565 92 12 ,并据此模型对绥化地区杨圆蚧发生面积进行回报及残差分析 ,证明本模型为一级。
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| 关 键 词： | 杨圆蚧 发生面积 预测预报 灰色系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-4961(2001)02-0166-03 |
PREDICTION OF OCCURRING AREA OF Quadradpidiotus gigas WITH GREY SYSTEM |
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| LIU Junxia,Wang Haiying,LIU Dongyun,LIU Kuanyu.PREDICTION OF OCCURRING AREA OF Quadradpidiotus gigas WITH GREY SYSTEM[J].Hebei Journal of Forestry and Orchard Research,2001,16(2):166-167,175. |
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| Authors: | LIU Junxia Wang Haiying LIU Dongyun LIU Kuanyu |
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| Abstract: | Through collection, sorting out and analysis of the occuring area of Quadraspidiotus gigas in Suihua, Heilongjiang province, and using the model ofGM(1,1) of grey system, a predictable model of the occurring case of poplar scale:AX＾G4(1)(k+1)=23 407.778 8e-0.000 007 122k+565.921 2 was formulated, the analysis of residual error based on the predictable model demonstrated that this model was level one. |
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| Keywords: | Quadraspidiotus gigas occurring area prediction Grey system |
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