| 基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴成国,王义民,唐言明.基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2012,40(1):221-226. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴成国 王义民 唐言明 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;西安理工大学 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;中海油山东化学工程有限责任公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2011CB403306）；国家公益性行业科研专项（201001012，201101043，201101049）；国家自然科学基金项目（51079037） |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】建立基于现代智能方法的洪水危险性评价模型，进一步提高评价精度，为制定区域防洪规划、实现洪水资源安全利用提供决策依据。【方法】鉴于可变模糊识别模型相对差异度函数构造困难、计算量大的不足，利用集对分析方法直接构造可变模糊识别模型相对差异度函数，进而通过确定指标权重，将洪水样本不同指标相对差异度综合为样本隶属度，建立基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型，并将其应用于长江下游南京站历史洪水样本的等级评价中，实现对不同洪水样本危险等级的分类排序。【结果】实例应用表明，采用基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型确定的洪水样本危险等级差异明显、分辨率高，与投影寻踪方法确定的洪水分类结果基本一致，有效避免了模型参数取值的主观随意性给评价结果带来的不确定性。【结论】基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型计算过程简便、可行，结果稳健、可靠，在缺乏标准评价等级资料的复杂系统综合评价问题中具有一定的推广应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 集对分析 可变模糊识别 洪水危险性评价 隶属度 洪水资源利用 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/7/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Variable fuzzy recognition model for the flood hazard assessment based on Set Pair Analysis |
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| WU Cheng-guo,WANG Yi-min,TANG Yan-ming,HUANG Qiang,JIN Ju-liang.Variable fuzzy recognition model for the flood hazard assessment based on Set Pair Analysis[J].Journal of Northwest Sci-Tech Univ of Agr and,2012,40(1):221-226. |
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| Authors: | WU Cheng-guo WANG Yi-min TANG Yan-ming HUANG Qiang JIN Ju-liang |
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| Institution: | 1 Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an, Shaanxi 710048,China;2 CNOOC Shandong Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd,Jinan,Shandong 250013,China; 3 College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei,Anhui 230009,China) |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】The research was to establish the flood hazard assessment model based on model intelligent method,and further improve the evaluating precision,which can supply important decision basis for establishing the regional flood control programming and realizing the safe utilization of flood resources.【Method】In view of the difficulties to establish the relative difference degree function and its large amount of calculation,the Set Pair Analysis method was used to establish the relative difference degree function directly for the variable fuzzy recognition method firstly,the relative difference degree of single index was synthesized into membership degree of the flood sample by determining the weight of evaluation indexes,and then the variable fuzzy recognition model for the flood hazard assessment based on Set Pair Analysis was established,which was applied in the grade assessment system for the historical flood samples of Nanjing Station in the lower of Yangtze River,and finally realized the classification and sorting for the hazard grade of flood samples.【Result】The applying result shows that,the hazard grade of the flood samples determined by the variable fuzzy recognition model for the flood hazard assessment based on Set Pair Analysis,consistent with the results calculated by the Projection Pursuit method,has obvious differences and higher resolving power,which effectively avoids the uncertainty of the results brought by the subjective and arbitrary of the parameter values.【Conclusion】The calculating process of the established model is simple and visual,and the calculating result is reasonable and reliable,so it would have a significant popularization and application prospect in the other assessment problem of complex system lacking of standard evaluation grade. |
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| Keywords: | Set Pair Analysis variable fuzzy recognition flood hazard assessment membership degree safe utilization of flood resources |
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