| 农村电力系统负荷预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶红朝.农村电力系统负荷预测研究[J].安徽农业科学,2014(12):3685-3687,3771. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶红朝 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省烟草公司洛阳市公司; |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省烟草公司重点项目(HYKJ201310) |
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| 摘 要： | 农村电力系统规划和运行在负荷预测方面是非常重要.主要叙述了时间序列分析的构思,模型构建方法的过程及步骤,假设时间序列,运用MATLAB软件试验,实现了模型参数的估计的过程和模型的定阶.运用灰色理论法进一步建立灰色模型GM（1,1）,且通过灰色关联分析进一步分析出不同模型的灰色关联度,这样才能更好地选择模型.
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 时间序列法 灰色模型 灰色关联度 |
Research on Load Forecasting of Power System |
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| YE Hong-chao.Research on Load Forecasting of Power System[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2014(12):3685-3687,3771. |
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| Authors: | YE Hong-chao |
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| Institution: | YE Hong-chao (Luoyang Branch of Henan Tobacco Company, Luoyang, Henan 471023 ) |
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| Abstract: | Rural electric power system planning and operation is significant in load forecasting. The conception of time series was elaborated, as well as model construction method and steps. MATLAB software was used to carried out an experiment, realizing model parameters estima- tion process and model order determination. Grey theory method was used to further establish grey model GM（ 1, 1 ）, the grey correlation de- gree was further analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | Load forecasting Time series method Grey model Grey correlation degree |
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