| 1981—2010年拉萨市降水特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 尼玛吉,杨勇,次珍,次仁央宗.1981—2010年拉萨市降水特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(17):262-266. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尼玛吉 杨勇 次珍 次仁央宗 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西藏自治区气候中心2. 拉萨市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了给拉萨市年际或更长时间的降水预测提供参考，并了解其降水气候变化的背景情况。利用拉萨市1981—2010年4个台站逐年降水资料，通过距平、滑动平均、趋势系数、突变分析、小波分析等方法，初步分析了拉萨市年降水量的变化特征。结果表明：近30年来，拉萨市降水量呈现前枯后丰的形态，年降水量总体上为上升趋势；从各站分析，春季、夏季以及全年降水量呈上升趋势，冬季除墨竹工卡以外，其余各站表现为下降趋势；拉萨市降水突变于1986年，在21世纪初增多趋势显著；年降水周期存在2个特征时间尺度，即2~4年、3~5年，均通过显著性检验，其中以准3年的年际振荡周期最为明显。从灾情看，无明显的特旱、特涝、重旱和重涝年，正常年份占51%，轻涝年出现的几率较轻旱年稍偏高。
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| 关 键 词： | 1949&mdash 1949&mdash 2000年 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/10/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/12/16 0:00:00 |
Analysis on Change Characteristics of Precipitation in Lhasa from 1981 to 2010 |
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| Abstract: | In order to provide a reference for the interannual or longer-term precipitation in Lhasa, and to understand the background of climate change on precipitation, based on the annual precipitation data recorded 4 meteorogical stations in Lhasa during the period from1981 to 2010, methods such as anomaly, 5-year moving average, the trend coefficient, the Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation in Lhasa. The results indicated that: annual precipitation increased in the past 30 years. Annual, spring and summer’s precipitation of each stations in Lhasa showed an increase trend, winter precipitation in most areas were a decrease trend. The precipitation’s mutation in Lhasa occurred in the late of 1980s. There was a significant 2-4 years and 3-5 years of frequency of annual rainfall. There was no serious dryness and wetness events occurred in Lhasa, most of the years were normal, and small floods event was easily to happen. |
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| Keywords: | analysis |
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