| 基于干旱综合风险指标的冬小麦保险费率厘定 |
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| 引用本文： | 史继清,;德吉,;旺杰,;甘臣龙.基于干旱综合风险指标的冬小麦保险费率厘定[J].中国农业气象,2014(6):663-668. |
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| 作者姓名： | 史继清 ;德吉 ;旺杰 ;甘臣龙 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所,拉萨850000; [2]西藏林芝地区气象局,林芝860000; [3]墨竹工卡县气象局,拉萨850000 |
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| 基金项目： | 西藏自治区气象局“基于风险区划的冬小麦干旱保险费率研究”课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于自然水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数以及三者权重系数构建干旱综合风险指标,对西藏林芝地区冬小麦种植风险进行评估；同时,利用冬小麦单产减产率与不同干旱指标建立回归方程,发现单产减产率与干旱综合风险指标回归方程的决定系数最高（R2=0.904,P＜0.05）；在此基础上利用非参数法计算出不同保障水平下的修正纯保险费率,得到适于研究区的保险费率厘定模型.结果表明,保障水平高于80％时修正的纯保险费率可作为农户投保的标准；100％、95％、90％保障水平下修正纯保险费率最高的为察隅,85％、80％保障水平下修正纯保险费率最高的为米林,保险公司可根据投保农户选取的冬小麦保障水平和种植区域支付相应的费率.
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| 关 键 词： | 保险 干旱 熵 费率厘定 |
Insurance Ratemaking for Winter Wheat Based on Comprehensive Indicator of Drought Risk |
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| Institution: | SHI Ji-qing ,Deji ,Wangjie ,GAN Chen-long (1. Tibet Plateau Atmospheric Environmental Science Research Institute, Lhasa 850000, China ;2. Nyingchi Meteorological Bureau, Tibet 860000 ;3. Maizhokunggar Meteorological Bureau, Lhasa 850000) |
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| Abstract: | Comprehensive indicator of drought risk was established based on the natural water deficit rate index, precipitation anomalies of the percentage rate, drought index and weight coefficients among them, which was used to assess planting-risk of winter wheat in Tibet Linzhi region. In the meanwhile, regression equation was established based on winter wheat yield reduction rate and different drought index, and the highest coefficient of determination （R2 = 0. 904, P 〈 0. 05 ）was between the yield per unit area reduction rate and comprehensive drought risk index. As the results, the modified pure premium under different security levels was calculated by using of nonparametric method, and the insurance premium rate model was established. The results showed that the standard for more than 80% of security level of farmers insured when correction of the pure insurance rate. Chayu was the highest fixed rate under the security level in 100% ,95% and 90% ,followed by Milin under the security level in 85% and 80%. The insurance company could pay the corresponding rates according to the insured farmers to select security level and planting area of winter wheat. |
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| Keywords: | Insurance Drought Entropy Ratemaking |
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