| 黑龙江省耕地资源安全预警分析及预警系统的构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋 戈,连 臣.黑龙江省耕地资源安全预警分析及预警系统的构建[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(6):247-252. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋 戈 连 臣 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（编号为41071346）；黑龙江省青年学术骨干项目（编号为1154G45）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 耕地资源安全预警是保护耕地和实现耕地资源可持续利用的有效手段。该文以黑龙江省为研究区,从耕地保护角度,结合研究区的耕地数量、质量和生态环境3个方面,构建耕地资源安全预警指标体系,利用纵比判断法,以研究区1996-2008年耕地资源安全定量评价值为基础数据,确定研究区耕地资源安全度的阈值。应用灰色模型GM(1.1)与BP人工神经网络技术,对黑龙江省2012-2015年耕地资源安全度及变化趋势进行了预测和分析,并构建了耕地资源预警系统框架体系。结果表明,1996-2008年黑龙江省耕地资源安全值呈不规则下降趋势。2012年黑龙江省耕地资源警度为轻警、2013-2015年为中警,警度有上升趋势;2012年耕地质量略有升高,但耕地数量减少幅度较大,2013-2015年,随着耕地数量的增加,耕地质量不断下降,2012-2015年生态环境呈平缓上升趋势。耕地数量与耕地质量不协调发展是黑龙江省耕地资源在预测期主要致警原因,城市化水平、水土流失比率和抗逆指数等是影响黑龙江省耕地资源安全状况的敏感因子。该文为相关预警研究提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 数量控制 预警 耕地资源安全 预警系统 黑龙江省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/7/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/1/20 0:00:00 |
Analysis and system construction of safety early warning for cultivated land resources in Heilongjiang province |
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| Song Ge and Lian Chen.Analysis and system construction of safety early warning for cultivated land resources in Heilongjiang province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(6):247-252. |
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| Authors: | Song Ge and Lian Chen |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environment, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China) |
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| Abstract: | Security warning of the cultivated land resources is an effective means to protect arable land and realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources. Taken Heilongjiang province as the research area in this paper, the safety warning index system of cultivated land resources was established from the perspective of cultivated land protection and by combining with the three aspects including the quantity, quality and ecological environment of cultivated land. Security quantitative evaluation value of cultivated land resources in 1996-2008 was taken as basic data in study area and the longitudinal judgment method was used to determine threshold value of safety degree for cultivated land resource in research area. And GM (1.1) and the BP neural network technology were used to forecast and analyze the change trend and safety degree of cultivated land resources from 2012 to 2015 in Heilongjiang province, and then security warning system of cultivated land resources was constructed. The results indicated that safety values of cultivated land resources appeared to irregularly decline from 1996 to 2008 in Heilongjiang province. Warning degree of cultivated land resources in 2012 were slight, and that from 2013-2015 was middle and its situation was became worse. The quality of cultivated land descended while quantity of cultivated land increased in 2012, and the quantity of cultivated land increased slightly from 2013-2015, but the quality of cultivated land continuously decreased. The ecological environment gently rose from 2012-2015. So during warning period, incoordinative development between quantity and quality of cultivated land resources quantity caused to warn in Heilongjiang province, and the urbanization level, water and soil loss ratio and resilience index and so on were the sensitive factors to affect of security conditions of cultivated land resources in Heilongjiang province. This paper provides a reference for a relevant pre-warning research. |
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| Keywords: | land use quality control forecasting cultivated land security warning system Heilongjiang province |
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