| 长江经济带耕地集约利用多尺度时空特征与影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张荣天,陆建飞.长江经济带耕地集约利用多尺度时空特征与影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(24):271-278. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张荣天 陆建飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 扬州大学新农村发展研究院,扬州 225009,扬州大学新农村发展研究院,扬州 225009 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金（2017M621834）;江苏高校哲学社会科学基金（2018SJA1153）;江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题（19SYC-111）;安徽省城镇化发展研究中心2016年度开放课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学分析区域耕地集约利用时空分异及影响因素,对于促进耕地资源集约潜力挖掘和高效利用具有重要现实意义。以长江经济带作为研究案例地,从投入强度、利用强度、产出效率及持续状况等维度上构建耕地集约利用评价指标体系,运用投影寻踪模型定量测度1978—2016年长江经济带耕地集约利用水平;基于流域、省域、市域多尺度视角,通过变异系数、ESDA、GIS模型,探究长江经济带耕地集约利用多尺度时空分异格局;运用地理探测器模型揭示长江经济带耕地集约利用分异的影响机制。结果表明:1)1978年以来流域尺度上长江经济带耕地集约利用水平表现提升态势,但演化过程中呈现"东高西低"差异特征;省域、市域尺度上长江经济带耕地集约利用呈现空间集聚特征,并且尺度越小空间集聚越显著。2)研究期间省域、市域尺度空间关联类型均以正向相关为主,且市域尺度上长江经济带耕地集约利用存在空间集聚"俱乐部趋同"现象,表现为H-H(high-high)型主要集聚在上海及苏南地区,并逐渐向绍杭、皖江地区演化;而L-L(low-low)型主要集聚在川西高原区。3)自然因素、人口增长、经济社会发展及制度政策可有效解释长江经济带耕地集约利用时空分异,其中人口因素、经济社会因素对耕地集约利用分异影响显著,而政策因素呈现较强驱动效应。4)最后从开展土地综合整治、加大要素投入力度、优化调整耕地结构、推进农业科技创新等方面提出促进长江经济带耕地集约利用提升政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 模型 耕地 影响因素 ESDA 地理探测器 多尺度 长江经济带 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/10/21 0:00:00 |
Multiscale spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of intensive cultivated land use in Yangtze River Economic Belt |
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| Zhang Rongtian and Lu Jianfei.Multiscale spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of intensive cultivated land use in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2019,35(24):271-278. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Rongtian and Lu Jianfei |
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| Institution: | New Rural Development Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China and New Rural Development Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: Under the limited reserve resources of cultivated land, it is necessary to change the traditional extensive utilization methods of cultivated land resources, and the road of intensive development is the most effective way to solve the human-land contradiction. The scientific analysis of spatial and temporal differences and influencing factors of cultivated land intensive use in the region is of great practical significance for promoting intensive potential exploitation and efficient utilization of cultivated land resources. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a case study, evaluation index system of cultivated land intensive use was constructed from the dimensions of input intensity, utilization intensity, output efficiency and sustainability. Projective pursuit model was used to quantitatively measure the level of cultivated land intensive use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1978 to 2016. Based on the multiscale perspective of watershed, province and city, through the coefficient of variation, spatial autocorrelation index, the paper explored multiscale spatial-temporal differences of cultivated land intensive use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The influence mechanism of intensive utilization of cultivated land was revealed by using geographic detector model. The results showed that: since 1978, the level of cultivated land intensive use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has improved at the watershed scale, but in the evolution process, the difference characteristics of "east high west low" have appeared; the intensive use of cultivated land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt at provincial and city scales presents spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the smaller the scale, the more significant the spatial agglomeration. During the period of the study, the types of spatial correlation between provinces and regions were mainly positive correlation, and there was a phenomenon of "club convergence" in cultivated land intensive use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt at city scale. The hot spots are mainly concentrated in Shanghai and Southern Jiangsu, and gradually evolved into Shaoxing-Hangzhou and Lancang; the cold point area was mainly concentrated in the Western Sichuan Plateau area. Natural factors, population growth, economic and social development, and institutional policies can effectively explain the spatial-temporal differences in the intensive use of cultivated land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt; demographic factors and economic and social factors have a significant impact on cultivated land intensive use, while policy factors have a strong driving effect. Finally, suggestions were put forward on how to promote cultivated land intensive use from the aspects of comprehensive land remediation, increasing the input of elements, optimizing and adjusting the structure of cultivated land, and promoting innovation in agricultural science and technology. In addition, it should be pointed out that there are still some deficiencies in this study: only the spatial and temporal patterns of cultivated land intensive use in six time sections since 1978 are analyzed on the time scale, it is also necessary to further reveal the temporal and spatial differentiation of intensive cultivated land use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt at a multitime scale. In terms of the impact mechanism, the factors of farmer households have not been discussed in this study, and the factors of farmer households have an important impact on regional cultivated land use efficiency. How to reveal the micro-mechanism of spatial and temporal differentiation of cultivated land intensive use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the perspective of farmers will be the next deepening area and direction of this study. |
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| Keywords: | land use models cultivated land impact factors ESDA geographic detectors multi scale Yangtze River Economic Belt |
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