| 太仓市水稻和小麦气候生产潜力估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈文忠,赵伟荣,张绪美,朱昊,杨小丽,吴赟,曹亚茹.太仓市水稻和小麦气候生产潜力估算[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(35):1-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈文忠 赵伟荣 张绪美 朱昊 杨小丽 吴赟 曹亚茹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.太仓市农业技术推广中心;2.太仓市气象局;3.南京信息工程大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 2016 年度太仓市农业面源污染综合治理试点项目“太仓市农业面源污染综合治理试点项目”；2015 年度太仓市重点研发计划项目（现代农 业）(TC2015NY03)；2018 年农业技术试验示范与服务支持项目（农业科技成果转化与推广应用）(091821301064072020)；2018 年度太仓市科协资助项 目“太仓市作物（水稻和小麦）生产潜力估算研究”。 |
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| 摘 要： | 小麦和水稻是太仓市主要的粮食作物，为了解太仓市小麦和水稻的气候生产潜力的变化趋势以及光温水条件对其生产潜力的影响程度，本研究收集并整理了太仓市近几十年来的温度、湿度、辐射、降雨等数据信息，分析了太仓市气象条件的变化趋势，并采用联合国粮食和农业组织（FAO）推荐的逐步订正法，估算了太仓市水稻和小麦生育期内的生产潜力和气候资源利用率。结果表明：（1）近几十年来太仓市太阳辐射能量有所下降，而气温和降水量则有所提升；（2）在太仓市气候条件变化影响下，小麦气候生产潜力呈升高趋势，而水稻气候生产潜力没有明显上升或下降趋势；（3）太仓市小麦气候生产潜力受水分条件影响较大，而水稻气候生产潜力则主要受到温度条件的影响；（4）水稻的气候资源利用率范围为38.50%~64.30%，而小麦则更低，仅23.72%~51.39%。综上所述，太仓市水稻和小麦作物的增产潜力仍然很大，可通过监控温度，调整农时，加强水分管理，改善土壤肥力，提高复种指数，引进新品种等途径提高太仓市作物产量。
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| 关 键 词： | 绵羊 绵羊 β-catenin 子宫 荧光实时定量PCR 半定量PCR |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-09-21 |
Estimation of Climatic Potential Productivity of Rice and Wheat in Taicang |
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| Abstract: | Wheat and rice are main food crops in Taicang. To find out the change trend of climatic potential productivity of wheat and rice, and estimate the influence of radiation, temperature and water condition, the data of temperature, humidity, radiation and rainfall of Taicang in recent decades were collected and sorted out. The change trend of climatic condition was analyzed, and the climatic potential productivity and climatic resource utilization ratio of rice and wheat within crop growth period were estimated by successive correction method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The results show that: (1) the solar radiation in Taicang has decreased in recent decades, while temperature and precipitation have increased; (2) under the influence of climate change in Taicang, the climate productivity potential of wheat increases, while that of rice does not change significantly; (3) the climate productivity of wheat in Taicang is greatly influenced by water condition, while that of rice is mainly affected by temperature condition; (4) the climatic resource utilization ratio of rice is 38.50%-64.30%, while that of wheat is lower, only about 23.72%-51.39%. In conclusion, there is still a great yield-increasing potential of rice and wheat in Taicang. The yield of the two crops can be increased by monitoring temperature and adjusting farming season, strengthening water management, improving soil fertility, raising the multiple cropping index and introducing new varieties. |
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