| 基于垂向混合产流模型的北京山区山洪预警模型构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋瑶,程金花,胡晓静,叶芝菡,吴敬东,石坤,张洪江.基于垂向混合产流模型的北京山区山洪预警模型构建[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(3):353-357. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋瑶 程金花 胡晓静 叶芝菡 吴敬东 石坤 张洪江 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京林业大学 水土保持学院,北京,100083;2. 北京市水科学技术研究院,北京,100048 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市科技计划“山区河流局地暴雨灾害影响及综合治理示范研究”，“山区山洪发生规律和预警技术研究”（Z121100000112008-3） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]构建基于垂向混合产流模型的北京山区山洪预警模型,为临界雨量的计算提供理论基础。方法]结合北京市的气候条件,选用垂向混合产流模型进行产流模拟,用单位线法和线性水库法进行坡面汇流模拟,用马斯京根法进行河道汇流模拟。安全流量则用淹没出流量代表。北京山区山洪预警模型中的参数可通过外业实验测定和历史数据率定获得。结果]通过对降雨和流量历史资料的验证,确定性系数、洪峰流量、峰现时间、时效等级均符合洪水预报的要求和规定,是否发生山洪的预测结果也与实际情况一致,证明了该模型的准确性。结论]该模型可以应用于北京山区的山洪预警,降低由山洪导致的人员伤亡与财产损失的可能性。同时,该模型还可为北京山区山洪灾害临界雨量的推求奠定基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 北京山区 山洪预警模型 水文模拟 垂向混合产流模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/3/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/6/23 0:00:00 |
Establishment of Early Warning Model for Flood in Mountainous Area of Beijing City Based on Vertical-mixed Runoff Model |
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| SONG Yao,CHENG Jinhu,HU Xiaojing,YE Zhihan,WU Jingdong,SHI Kun and ZHANG Hongjiang.Establishment of Early Warning Model for Flood in Mountainous Area of Beijing City Based on Vertical-mixed Runoff Model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(3):353-357. |
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| Authors: | SONG Yao CHENG Jinhu HU Xiaojing YE Zhihan WU Jingdong SHI Kun and ZHANG Hongjiang |
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| Institution: | College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China,College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China,Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China,Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China,Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China,College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China and College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective] To establish a flood warning model for the mountainous area of Beijing City based on vertical-mixed runoff model in order to provide theoretical basis for the calculation of critical rainfall.Methods] Considering the weather conditions in Beijing City, vertical-mixed runoff model was used to simulate runoff generation, unit hydrograph and linear reservoir method were applied to simulate overland runoff concentration, Muskingum method to simulate flood routing, and submerged discharge was used to represent safety discharge. The parameters of a flood warning model in the area can be determined by field experiment and calibrated by historical data.Results] Coefficient of determination, peak-flood discharge, peak time and aging level conformed to the requirement and regulation of mountain flood forecasting through the validation of historical precipitation and hydrological data. In addition, the predicted possibility of a flood is in accordance with reality.Conclusion] The accuracy of this model is good and can be applied to the early warning of flood in Beijing mountainous area with confidence, thus reducing casualties and property losses. This model also lays a foundation for the calculation of critical rainfall of flood in the mountainous area of Beijing City. |
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| Keywords: | mountainous area of Beijing City early warning model of flood hydrological simulation vertical-mixed runoff model |
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