Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geography and Program in Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada M5S 3G3;2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China;3. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, PR China;1. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany;2. Center for Development Research (ZEF), Walter-Flex-Straße 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany;3. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany;1. Sino-French Institute for Earth System, Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;2. Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;3. Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 16 Lincui Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China;4. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;1. INRA, UMR AGIR, Toulouse, France;2. Department of Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka;3. Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka, Belihuloya 70140, Sri Lanka;4. Field Crops Research and Development Institute, Mahailluppallma, Sri Lanka;5. CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia;6. Department of Agriculture, University of Florida, United States;7. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, United States;1. Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan-60800, Pakistan;2. Pir Meher Ali Shah, Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 46300, Pakistan;3. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan;4. In-Service Agriculture Training Institution Sargodha, Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan;5. Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA |
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| Abstract: | Crop models have been widely used in simulating and predicting changes in rice phenology in the major rice production regions of China, however the uncertainties in simulating crop phenology at a large scale and from different models were rarely investigated. In the present study, five rice phenological models/modules (i.e., CERES-Rice, ORYZA2000, RCM, Beta Model, SIMRIW) were firstly calibrated and validated based on a large number of rice phenological observations across China during 1981–2009. The inner workings of the models, as well as the simulated phenological response to climate change/variability, were compared to determine if the models adequately handled climatic changes and climatic variability. Results showed these models simulated rice phenological development over a large area fairly well after calibration, although the relative performance of the models varied in different regions. The simulated changes in rice phenology were generally consistent when temperatures were below the optimum; however varied largely when temperatures were above the optimum. The simulated rice growing season under future climate scenarios was shortened by about 0.45–5.78 days; but in northeastern China, increased temperature variability may prolong the growing season of rice. We concluded more modeling and experimental studies should be conducted to accelerate understanding of rice phenology development under extreme temperatures. |
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