| 辽宁西部半干旱区近50年降水趋势及周期变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 安昕,张国林.辽宁西部半干旱区近50年降水趋势及周期变化[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(5):214-220. |
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| 作者姓名： | 安昕 张国林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093;沈阳市气象局,沈阳110168
2. 辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳,122000 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”（05ESN217400412）. |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究掌握辽西地区的降水趋势演变和周期变化规律，以充分利用降水资源进行抗旱减灾，根据典型代表性气象站逐年降水观测资料，采用数理统计方法、Mann-Kendall非参数相关检验、线性趋势拟合、距平累积和有序聚类分析法，分析辽西年降水和汛期降水的变化特征。结果表明：辽宁西部年降水量、汛期降水量年际间波动较大，近50年存在较明显的逐渐减少趋势。其中，年降水气候倾向率为-10.073 mm/10 a，趋势减少50.2 mm；气候倾向率-17.388 mm/10 a，趋势减少86.9 mm。年降水存在7年、20年周期；汛期降水存在8年、15~17年、20~22年周期。年降水突变点在1980年，突变前后年降水量下降9.4%；汛期降水突变点在1981年，突变前后降水量下降13.1%。辽宁西部降水逐渐减少，加剧了农业干旱，严重影响了地方农业经济的发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业上市公司 农业上市公司 审计定价 会计师事务所 外部治理环境 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/1/2011 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/9/16 0:00:00 |
The Precipitation Trend and Periodical Changes in Recent 50 Years in Semiarid Region of Western Liaoning Province |
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| An Xin
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Zhang Guolin.The Precipitation Trend and Periodical Changes in Recent 50 Years in Semiarid Region of Western Liaoning Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2012,28(5):214-220. |
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| Authors: | An Xin Zhang Guolin |
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| Institution: | (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093; 2Shenyang Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang 110168; Chaoyang Meteorological Bureau, Chaoyang Liaoning 122000) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study and master the evolution of precipitation trend and its periodic change in western Liaoning for making full use of precipitation against drought. The characteristics of annual participation in western Liaoning Province and participation in flood season were analyzed with mathematical statistics method, MannKendall nonparametric test, linear trend fittings, anomaly accumulation and sequential clustering analytical method as well as yearly participation monitoring data from typical weather stations. The results showed that annual participation in western Liaoning Province and participation in flood season had great interannual changes, and there was an obvious decline tendency during recent 5 years with climate tendency rate of annual participation of 10.073 mm/10 a, tendency decline of 50.2 mm; climate tendency rate of-17.388 ram/10 a, tendency decline of 86.9 mm. Annual participation is concentrated in period 7 a and 20 a; participation in flood season was concentrated in 8 a, 15-17 a and 20-22 a. Catastrophe point of annual participation was 1980, with 9.4% decline of annual participation; catastrophe point of participation in flood season was 1981, with 13.1% decline of participation. The participation of western Liaoning Province declined year by year, which exacerbated the agricultural drought and seriously influenced the regional development of agricultural economy. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation flood season trend cycle mutation |
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