| 吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 高 标,房 骄,许清涛,李玉波.吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):617-621. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高 标 房 骄 许清涛 李玉波 |
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| 作者单位： | 白城师范学院地理科学学院，吉林 白城 137000;东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院，吉林 长春 130024;白城师范学院地理科学学院，吉林 白城 137000;白城师范学院地理科学学院，吉林 白城 137000 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林省教育厅科技研究项目(编号:吉教科合字(2013)第391号)；吉林省科技发展计划项目(编号:20120408)；国家自然科学基金(编号:41071388)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于农业物质投入的五个方面:化肥、农膜、农药、农用柴油及农村用电,利用农业碳排放量估算模型,计算吉林省1999-2011年的农业碳排放量,分析农业碳排放总量、组成结构以及农业碳排放强度的动态变化,结果表明:吉林省农业碳排放总量变化分为二个阶段,即波动增长阶段和稳步增长阶段。碳排放总量由1999年的205.3632万t增加到2011年的371.7199万t；农业碳排放总量的组成结构保持不变,依次是化肥、农村用电、农膜、柴油、农药碳排放量；农业碳排放强度从1999年的505.2855kg/hm2升高到2011年的711.7935kg/hm2,其与人均GDP 的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)呈三次函数曲线,预计2012年将达到转折点。基于STIRPAT模型,揭示了人口总数、人均GDP、农业贡献值、农用机械总动力、农户固定资产投资等驱动因素的弹性系数分别为2.6806、0.0767、0.2160、0.1247、0.0572。时间序列预测模型显示:2012-2016年,吉林省农业碳排放总量将由392.4663万t增加到494.1911万t,农业碳排放强度由709.1317kg/hm2下降到561.4089kg/hm2。吉林省必须采取切实有效的措施,改变现有的农业生产发展模式、改善农业生产结构,加强农业科学技术发展,否则,吉林省农业减排的形势将更加严峻。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线 STIRPAT模型 驱动因素 吉林省 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/8/2013 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/8/14 0:00:00 |
Dynamic Change and Analysis of Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Jilin Province |
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| GAO Biao,FANG JiaO,XU Qing-tao and LI Yu-bo.Dynamic Change and Analysis of Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Jilin Province[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2013,34(5):617-621. |
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| Authors: | GAO Biao FANG JiaO XU Qing-tao and LI Yu-bo |
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| Institution: | School of Geography Science, Baicheng Normal University, Baicheng, Jilin 137000, China;School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024, China;School of Geography Science, Baicheng Normal University, Baicheng, Jilin 137000, China;School of Geography Science, Baicheng Normal University, Baicheng, Jilin 137000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the five aspects of agricultural material inputs which include chemical fertilizer, agricultural film, agricultural pesticide, agricultural diesel oil, rural electricity, agricultural carbon emissions are obtained by using the estimation model of agricultural carbon emissions from 1999to 2011in Jilin Province, and the total agricultural carbon emissions, structure of composition and the intensity of carbon emission, are analyzed. The result indicates that the change of total agricultural carbon emissions in Jilin Province is divided into two stages which include the stage of fluctuating growth and the stage of steady growth, the total agricultural carbon emissions increased continuously from 205.3632×104t to 371.7199×104t between 1999and 2011; the structure of total agricultural carbon emissions kept unchanged that followed by chemical fertilizer, rural electricity, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil and agricultural pesticide; the intensity of carbon emission increased from 505.2855kg/hm2to 711.7935kg/hm2between 1999and 2011, and its EKC is the three function curve, the turning point will appear in 2012. Based on the STIRPAT model, the study revealed that elasticity coefficients of driving factors such as population, per capita GDP, the value contribution of agricultural, the total power of agricultural machinery, fixed assets investment of farmers are 2.6806,0.0767,0.2160,0.1247and 0.0572, respectively. The time series prediction model shows the total agricultural carbon emissions will increase from 392.4663×104t to 494.1911×104t and the intensity of carbon emission will drop from 709.1317kg/hm2to 561.4089kg/hm2between 2012and 2016in Jilin Province. Therefore, Jilin Province must take effective measures to change the development mode of agricultural production, improve the existing agricultural production structure, strengthen the development of agricultural science and technology, otherwise, the status of agriculture carbon emission reduction will be even more severe in Jilin Province. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural carbon emissions Environmental Kuznets Curve STIRPAT model driving factors Jilin Province |
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