| 中国谷物贸易演变趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 高延清,丁建国,麻吉亮,张蕙杰,曹建民.中国谷物贸易演变趋势分析[J].新疆农业科学,2019,56(11):2140-2147. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高延清 丁建国 麻吉亮 张蕙杰 曹建民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.吉林农业大学经济管理学院,长春 130118; 2.新疆农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所,乌鲁木齐 830091; 3.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081; 4.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 现代农业产业技术体系专项资金“国家食用豆产业技术体系专项资金” (CARS-08) |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】 针对中国谷物贸易2000年以来呈现出的新特征,研究谷物贸易演变趋势,对谷物贸易进行展望,为我国调节谷物供需平衡、保障国家粮食安全的相关决策提供科学依据。【方法】 基于联合国贸易数据库(UN COMTRADE)中2000~2017年中国谷物贸易相关的数据,采用显性比较优势指数,研究中国谷物贸易格局的演变,分析谷物相关政策对贸易的影响。【结果】 中国谷物出口已由较强竞争力转为较弱竞争力,且竞争力在不断弱化;中国已经由谷物净出口国变为谷物净进口国;中国谷物进出口市场和进出口产品结构均发生明显变化;谷物支持政策经过一系列调整后有效的促进了谷物市场的正常运行,谷物进口受到农产品进口关税配额的限制,而谷物的出口由国家根据谷物生产情况进行调节。【结论】 我国谷物消费结构出现新特征,谷物的需求出现由“量”到“质”的提升,在资源与环境的约束下,我国谷物产量增加空间有限,进口进一步增加潜力巨大。
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| 关 键 词： | 谷物贸易 出口竞争力 贸易规模 贸易地理流向 贸易产品结构 贸易相关政策 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-07-26 |
Analysis and Prospect of the Evolution Trend of Grain Trade in China |
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| GAO Yan-qing,DING Jian-guo,MA Ji-liang.Analysis and Prospect of the Evolution Trend of Grain Trade in China[J].Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences,2019,56(11):2140-2147. |
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| Authors: | GAO Yan-qing DING Jian-guo MA Ji-liang |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China; 2.Institute of Agricultural Economy and Scientific Technical Information, Xinjang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091,China; 3.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, CAAS, Beijng 100081, China; 4.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081,China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】 In view of the new characteristics of China's grain trade since 2000, this project aims to study the evolution trend of grain trade, and look forward to the grain trade, so as to provide scientific basis for China to adjust the balance between grain supply and demand and ensure national food security. 【Method】 Basing on the data related to China's grain trade in the UN COMTRADE database from 2000 to 2017,the Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) was employed to analyze the evolution of China's grain trade pattern, to explore the impact of grain-related policies on trade, and finally to forecast the development trend of China's grain trade.【Result】 The results showed that China's grain export changed from strong competitiveness to weaker competitiveness, and competitiveness is weakening; China has changed from a net exporter of cereals to a net importer of cereals; China's grain import and export market and import and export product structure have changed significantly; China's grain import and export market and import and export product structure have changed significantly. After a series of adjustments, the grain support policy has effectively promoted the normal operation of the grain market and guaranteed the income of farmers; Grain imports are subject to tariff quotas for the import of agricultural products, while grain exports are regulated by the State in the light of grain production 【Conclusion 】 China's grain consumption structure has displayed new characteristics. That is, the demand for grain has increased from "quantity" to "quality". Under the constraints of resources and environment, there is limited room for grain yield to increase in China, so there is great potential for further increase in imports. |
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| Keywords: | grain trade export competitiveness trade scale trade geographical flow trade product structure trade-related policy |
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